原文标题： The Clock Has Ticked on Bitcoin's Post Halving Surge, 100 Days After the Latest Quadrennial Halving
Original author: Omkar Godbole
Original source: coindesk
Compiled by: Mars Finance, Daisy
July 29 marks 100 days since the Bitcoin blockchain slashed its mining reward per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
July 29 marks 100 days since the Bitcoin blockchain slashed its mining reward per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Data from past halvings shows that the bullish impact of the programming code took effect 100 days later.
Looking back at the history of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference, the crypto community may remember that July 29 marked the 100th day since the Bitcoin blockchain implemented its fourth mining reward halving. New research from ETC Group shows that the bullish impact of the slowed Bitcoin (BTC) supply expansion caused by the halving tends to be seen after 100 days. Bitcoin mining reward halving is built into the code and takes effect every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined on the blockchain. The quadrennial halving event reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions by 50%. The main goal is to control the supply of Bitcoin and ensure that it becomes scarce over time, unlike fiat currencies, which have an ever-increasing supply (monetary inflation). Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million, and the reward halving helps control how quickly that cap is reached. The first halving was implemented in 2012, reducing the per-block reward paid to miners from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. In the next two halvings, the supply per block dropped to 6.25 BTC. The most recent halving was implemented on April 20, further reducing the price to 3.125 BTC. Previous halvings paved the way for a multi-fold increase in the price of Bitcoin, with most of the gains occurring after the first 100 days. "Today marks exactly 100 days after the Bitcoin halving event on April 20. Markets tend to have short memories, but the supply shortage triggered by the halving should only start to kick in now," Andre Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, said on X. Dragosch came to this conclusion after scanning performance data before and after the three halvings implemented in 2012, 2016, and 2020. The study showed that the average excess performance - the difference between the performance X days after the halving and the performance X days before the halving - increased significantly 100 days after the halving and was statistically significant, with a "T-value" of more than 2%. The T-value is a statistic used in hypothesis testing to determine how far the sample mean is from the population mean, stabilized by the variability of the sample. “The key point is that the performance difference becomes statistically significant (T-value > 2) 100 days after the halving and then becomes increasingly pronounced until about 400 days after the halving,” Dragosch told CoinDesk.”
BTC's rally tends to accelerate on the 100th day after the halving. (ETC Group) (ETC Group)
The chart shows that the average excess performance began to rise to over 100% from the 100th day after the halving, eventually peaking in the four digits.
Whether history will repeat itself remains to be seen.
