BTC is approaching a record high, is the big one really coming?
After two consecutive weeks of strong rebound, BTC experienced fierce long-short confrontation in the third week, and finally achieved a three-week rise with a slight increase of 84 US dollars, during which the price fluctuation was as high as 8.81%.
Facing the shadow of Mt.Gox's supply of more than 100,000 BTC and the adjustment of US stocks, the market still showed firm confidence in the bull market.
The direct driver of this wave of rise is still the continuous inflow of funds, although it has slowed down slightly compared with the previous two weeks. The big event in the crypto circle this week was Trump's appearance at the US Bitcoin Conference on July 28. At the event attended by hundreds of thousands of people, he made a bold statement: If elected, BTC will be included in the US national reserve, and the power guarantee for BTC mining will be strongly supported, and the first presidential advisory group on cryptocurrency will be established in history.
Trump's move undoubtedly pushed BTC into the global spotlight, and for the first time closely linked the national reserve with cryptocurrency. Hong Kong is not far behind, and lawmakers and industry representatives have called on the government to include BTC in the strategic reserve.
On the other hand, the expectation of a US interest rate cut is becoming clearer. Affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts, the funds of Nasdaq technology stocks have been adjusted significantly, declining for two consecutive weeks, and last week it fell by more than 2%. It should be noted that BTC, which has historically been negatively correlated with the trend of the US dollar, has always been one of the beneficiaries of the interest rate cut trend.
Let's look at the Federal Reserve and economic data: US consumer confidence fell to an 8-month low in July, which not only strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, but also made people more worried about the mild economic recession. The CPI inflection point has appeared, and the interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion. The market has begun to price in the economic recession.
The Nasdaq fell 2.08% this week, falling for two consecutive weeks. Tesla's poor performance and its stock price once plummeted by 20% poured cold water on the high growth expectations of technology stocks. However, the Russell 2000 index, which represents small businesses, rose by 1.74%, achieving three consecutive weeks of gains. In the US stock market, funds are flowing from technology stocks to small-cap stocks with lower valuations.
On the capital side, US dollar stablecoins continued to flow in, with an inflow of US$558 million this week. Although it was less than the US$1.594 billion last week, stablecoins inflows totaled US$3.5 billion in July. BTC ETF also performed well, with an inflow of $556 million this week and a cumulative inflow of $3.076 billion this month. Adding the two together, the net inflow of funds in July exceeded $6.5 billion, completely reversing the downward trend in May and June.
