As market uncertainty disappears, the price of Bitcoin is rising at an alarming rate. The current price has reached $68,000. This is thanks to institutional investors continuing to buy Bitcoin. However, Ethereum had a larger correction last week and did not appear. The ETF listing we originally expected was due to the fact that the Ethereum ETF experienced a capital outflow of US$133 million on the second day of listing, causing the price of Ethereum to fall by 10%, from nearly US$3,500 to a multi-day low of US$3,200. The market is relatively panicked, especially as the market generally expects Ethereum to soar after the listing of spot ETFs.
After our analysis, we concluded that many traders adopt higher leverage contract trading strategies. When the market leverage is high, the profit-taking power of ETF holders is greater than the buying power of Ethereum ETF funds, and the overall market funds There was a net outflow and the market price fell. This plunge directly led to the forced liquidation of many contract positions. We are too optimistic about the short-term benefits of the Ethereum ETF listing.
Therefore, we are still optimistic about the future price performance of Ethereum. After this round of deleveraging, the performance of Ethereum ETF in the past few days is actually pretty good, maintaining a certain degree of trading popularity, with a daily trading volume of approximately US$1 billion. Although Compared with Bitcoin, the popularity is not that high, but as the second listed fund, the performance has been quite outstanding. However, the market's initial expectations were too high. We are optimistic that the Ethereum ETF will continue to bring more funds to the market in the future.
As for Bitcoin, there is also a good rising environment. There are two phenomena worthy of attention. The first is that after Mt Gox users received Bitcoin compensation, according to CryptoQuant’s analysis report, creditors did not choose to sell in large quantities. A large proportion of people Continuing to hold them in their own cold wallets shows that these old players have confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin. The previously feared large-scale selling expectations did not occur.
In addition, the U.S. election is also affecting the price trend of Bitcoin. Even if the Democratic Party chooses to replace Biden and appoint Harris Harris to take over the election, Trump’s current winning rate in the community continues to lead Harris, and the cryptocurrency market has not been affected by the Democratic Party. Bitcoin prices It continued to rise slowly last week, with the main buying orders coming from institutional investors. Almost all Bitcoin ETF funds had a net inflow, amounting to US$500 million.
Sources: MICA RESEARCH A. July 23 The Ethereum spot ETF is expected to be officially listed for trading on July 23
With Bitcoin’s strong rebound in the past two weeks, investors are making choices with their funds. The latest report released by Coinshares shows the positive trend of the cryptocurrency market, in which the capital inflow and trading volume of cryptocurrency-related ETP funds have increased significantly to For example, ETF inflows reached US$1.35 billion last week, and the total in the past three weeks reached US$3.2 billion. Furthermore, ETP trading volume also increased significantly, with a weekly growth of 45%, and the amount grew to US$12.9 billion.
In addition, mainstream Bitcoin continues to see capital inflows amid strong buying sentiment, with capital inflows reaching US$1.27 billion last week. In contrast, short Bitcoin ETP funds continue to flow out, with an additional US$1.9 million flowing out last week. Total outflows since March reached $44 million, which is almost equal to 56% of AUM. This shows that investors have increased confidence in the price of Bitcoin and continue to be bullish on the subsequent price increase of Bitcoin.
In addition, as the Ethereum spot ETF is about to be listed for trading, the buying sentiment of Ethereum has also improved, with an inflow of US$45 million last week. Although the crypto market has been affected by the Democratic Party change in recent days, and prices have retreated, the overall upward trend has been The trend continues. It is recommended that investors continue to observe the capital flow of the Ethereum ETF official transaction on July 23. It is expected to catch up with the recent price increase, which is worth looking forward to.
B. July 25 CryptoQuant Analysis: Mt. Gox Creditors Choose to Hold Bitcoin
Since the beginning of July, Mt. Gox has repaid BTC and BCH to creditors through the Kraken exchange. Kraken has now distributed all debts, but the prices of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash have continued to remain stable, not as expected by analysts. Following the big crash, the price of Bitcoin remained at $65,000, with a weekly increase of 2.1%. Even though technology stocks crashed yesterday, the overall cryptocurrency market remained stable.
Community analysis believes this may be because creditors on Kraken did not immediately sell their tokens. The previous Mt. Gox repayment caused major concerns among cryptocurrency investors. Investors were worried that many creditors would sell the BTC deposits they received. It could trigger a sharp price drop like when the German government sold confiscated BTC, but that is not happening now.
However, new analysis from CryptoQuant reveals an interesting behavior of Mt. Gox’s creditors when they receive repayments in Bitcoin. Contrary to potential concerns of a market sell-off, the on-chain crypto analytics platform showed a significant increase in the number of Bitcoin outflows on Kraken, indicating a strong "hold on" sentiment among creditors, with more than 5,000 BTC having been withdrawn from crypto in the past 24 hours. The exchange moved to a cold wallet. This move by creditors choosing to store their Bitcoins safely rather than sell them immediately is a positive sign for the market.
C. July 26th Bitcoin mining farm Marathon changed its strategy and fully increased its holdings of BTC
Marathon Digital, the largest Bitcoin mining company in the United States, recently announced that it purchased $100 million worth of Bitcoin, increasing its holdings to 20,000 BTC. The company stated that they are changing their internal Bitcoin holding strategy and adopting a comprehensive HODL The inventory of Bitcoins produced means that they will no longer sell the Bitcoins they mine, and will make and announce more open market purchases on a regular basis.
Digital Marathon Chief Financial Officer Salman Khan stated that they are retaining all Bitcoin until 2023. However, the company likely sold some of its assets last year to pay for operating costs and maintain operations, which means that the recently sold Bitcoin assets are enough for the company’s working capital in the next few years, and the current upward trend of Bitcoin is in line with the expected The interest rate cut environment will bring higher value expectations.
Digital Marathon takes into account the company's solid financial position and decided to hold more Bitcoin to express its confidence in Bitcoin. They believe Bitcoin is the best store of value in the world and support the sovereign wealth fund's decision to hold Bitcoin. idea. I encourage governments and companies to use Bitcoin as a reserve asset. This press release also shows that the mine has completed equipment upgrades and the Bitcoin selling force at the mine will weaken in the future.
The wave of mine upgrades comes to an end, and Bitcoin selling pressure slows down
Of course, there was also a situation last week when the compensation was transferred and the market fell. However, Bitcoin rebounded back to a position close to a new high within two days. In the next few months, Mt Gox will continue to distribute BTC and BCH to creditors’ wallet addresses. We will still Seeing that compensation actions happen from time to time, each time they appear, it may still cause a slight panic in the market. It may be used as a means to clear the market chips. Highly leveraged investors should be more careful. In the long term, we still hold the price of Bitcoin. High confidence.
General investors do not need to worry too much about the continued repayment of the Mt. Gox exchange. We believe that even if there will be some slight selling pressure, this wave of sales will not be like the German government’s previous operation that destroyed all Bitcoins at once. Selling on the spur of the moment, which in turn leads to a sharp drop in the market. Since these users who receive Bitcoin have no urgency to sell in the short term, they can sell slowly and slowly over a long period of time at various points in time. The current market liquidity is quite sufficient and they are sold in batches. There will be no significant impact on price.
The second bullish factor is the wave of equipment upgrades in Bitcoin mines. As far as we know, it has reached a stage, and the delivery of mining equipment manufacturers has also reached a certain amount, which means that the pressure on mines to sell Bitcoins will It is much lower than forgetting. They no longer need to invest a lot of cash in mining machines. Instead, they will hold Bitcoin and continue to wait for its value to rise.
Digital Marathon is one of the best examples. The number of mines sold this time has also dropped a lot, showing that the financial structure of the mining farms has improved. A while ago, the selling of mining farms was the main source of market pressure. We expect that the strength of this selling will be It will drop a lot, which will create a market environment in which Bitcoin is more likely to rise. Taking into account the above two factors, and the U.S. interest rate cut is already a definite trend, but we believe that Bitcoin has not yet reflected the benefits of interest rate cuts. When the market actually cuts interest rates, Bitcoin prices are likely to reach new highs again, and the current reasonable price of Bitcoin is still $70,000.
Review of last week【MICA RESEARCH】Bitcoin still has rising momentum, and its return to 70,000 is just around the corner.
Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.
MICA Research's content has been published simultaneously on Substack. If you don't want to miss the first-hand news, please click here to subscribe. The weekly report and daily market findings will be sent to you via email.
〈[MICA RESEARCH] The negative factors of Mt. Gox have been eliminated, which is beneficial to the rise of Bitcoin〉 This article was first published on "Block Guest".
