As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer, prediction markets are buzzing with bets and speculations.
Popular blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket shows a glimpse into the current sentiment.
https://t.co/5QCab139qZ
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 26, 2024
Let’s take a closer look at what the data reveals about the likely outcomes in the race for the White House.
Presidential election winner: Trump in the lead
With nearly $400 million bet on the outcome, the prediction market for the presidential election winner in 2024 sees Donald Trump leading with a 59% chance of victory, backed by $50.5 million in bets. Kamala Harris follows with a solid 40% chance, based on wagers worth $33.7 million.
Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” betting pool | Source: Polymarket
Other candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent, all trail far behind. According to market bets, those candidates hold less than a 1% chance of winning the November ballot.
Popular vote: Harris expected to come out on top
In a contrasting prediction, Polymarket users currently favor Kamala Harris to win the popular vote, with 62% of punters in that pool putting their money where their mouth is, as indicated by more than $2.7 million in bets.
Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Popular Vote Winner 2024” betting pool | Source: Polymarket
Donald Trump, while leading the race for the presidency itself, trails in the popular vote market with a 36% chance and $5.3 million wagered in his favor.
Interestingly, this divergence underscores the potential for a split between the electoral and popular vote outcomes, a scenario reminiscent of previous elections in U.S. history.
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Balance of power: slight edge to Republicans
Turning to the broader question of which party will control the government post-election, Polymarket provides a detailed snapshot.
Polymarket’s “Balance of Power: 2024 Election” betting pool | Source: Polymarket
Its “Balance of Power: 2024 Election” market, which has seen almost $3.7 million in total bets, shows a narrow edge for a Republican sweep with a 34% chance, supported by just over $570,000 in bets. Meanwhile, a Democrat sweep holds a 22% chance, based on more than $328,000 in bets.
More nuanced scenarios, such as a Republican president with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House, stand at 23%, while a Democratic president with a Republican Senate and Democratic House sits at 18%.
Biden’s exit shakes up race
Unlike President Joe Biden, whose stance on crypto had him at odds with the community, Harris is still an unknown quantity in terms of where she leans on crypto.
However, reports have emerged that the vice-president’s team has approached some of the bigger players in the crypto industry to rebuild relationships even as the sector has largely shown up for Trump.
Some feel that this potential rethink on crypto could make Harris a more palatable candidate for the industry than Biden, hence the narrowing margins between herself and Trump among Polymarket bettors.
Interestingly, a lot of the sentiments expressed by users on the crypto prediction market have been largely mirrored by mainstream polls.
For instance, the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, conducted immediately after Biden exited the 2024 presidential race, shows that the battle between Harris and Trump would be too close to call.
According to that poll, Harris has opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Trump, leading 44% to 42%. The two were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by 1% in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.
Overall, these predictions offer valuable insights into the current political landscape as seen by the betting public. The decentralized nature and accessibility of crypto-based prediction markets, in particular, offer visibility into an arguably wider swathe of opinion and sentiment. As always, predictions are not set in stone, and the dynamic nature of politics means that public opinion and betting odds can shift rapidly.
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