The moderate increase in prices in the United States in June, together with the decline in the cost of goods and the rise in the cost of services, indicated an improving inflation environment that strengthened the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September.

The report published by the US Department of Commerce on Friday revealed that there was a slight slowdown in consumer spending last month. The easing in price pressures and the cooling in the labor market may increase FED officials' confidence that inflation is moving towards the central bank's 2% target. The FED will hold its next policy meeting on July 30-31.

Olu Sonola, Head of US Economic Research at Fitch Ratings, said, "The main question now is whether the positive momentum observed in the last three months will continue until the September meeting." He added: "The FED's eyes will be on the developments in the labor market and will prepare the ground for an interest rate cut in September. It is likely that he will use the meeting to be held next week for this purpose.”

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month after remaining unchanged in May.

“Improving inflation data suggest that the inflation increase observed in the first quarter is temporary,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “Furthermore, if rent inflation has finally slowed as recent data suggest, inflation may have returned to a sustainable downward trend.”

Demand in the economy cooled in response to the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening in 2022 and 2023. While economic growth averaged 2.1% in the first half of the year, it increased to 4.2% in the second half of 2023.

Economists at Bank of America Securities estimate the excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic at approximately $400 billion and predict that this amount will last until the end of the year at the current rate of savings destruction. “Rising savings suggest consumers are reducing their spending and possibly saving more for precautionary reasons,” said Veronica Clark, a Citigroup economist. “But overall spending appears to be slowing with lower-than-expected income. “A very low savings rate may indicate the risk of a sharper decline in spending as the labor market weakens.”

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