The big counterattack begins! Bitcoin leads the altcoin rebound, while ETH continues to be weak
Bitcoin is leading the altcoin market to rebound, although ETH is still weak. Grayscale ETHE is expected to fall for up to two more weeks, so there is no need to worry too much. At the same time, the US market is beginning to look forward to a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September. The PCE data released tonight is particularly important. It is expected that the next interest rate cut will exceed expectations. The Q4 bull market is worth looking forward to! Last night, the United States released the preliminary value of Q2 GDP. The data showed that Q2 GDP increased by 2.8% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 2% and much higher than the previous value of 1.4%. Real personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter increased by 2.3% month-on-month, which was expected to be 2%. The number of initial unemployment claims fell by 10,000 to 235,000 last week, slightly lower than expected. Although these data are not bad news for the market, they are indeed not good news, which is one of the reasons why US stocks fell last night.
However, the risk market has entered a new stage. The cryptocurrency market is no longer linked to technology stocks, but is strongly correlated with the Russell small-cap stocks. Last night, the Russell small-cap stocks rose against the trend, and the trend was very similar to the rebound of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the trend of the cryptocurrency market in the future can refer to the trend of the Russell 100 index.
Ethereum ETF continues to have net outflows, Grayscale ETHE selling pressure is hard to conceal
The net outflow of Ethereum ETF continues, which is expected. The current buying brought by the ETF cannot cover the selling pressure of Grayscale ETHE, and the net outflow continued to be $152 million last night. The buying of various institutions was basically the same as the previous day. Grayscale ETHE is still the main source of outflow, and it sold another $346 million last night. The average daily outflow in these three days is close to $400 million.
However, there was a bright spot last night: Grayscale's new mini ETF (code ETH) has seen a linear growth in capital inflow for three consecutive days. As Grayscale's new low-fee product, the original plan was to reduce ETHE's capital outflow. If ETH's capital inflow continues to increase over time, it may be able to cover ETHE's selling pressure in the future.
We have two expectations for the Ethereum ETF:
First, the capital inflows of all ETF institutions can fill the gap of ETHE selling pressure;
Second, the inflow of mini ETF can basically cover the outflow of ETHE.
If either of these two is realized, Ethereum will usher in a violent rebound. Currently, affected by the selling pressure of ETHE, Ethereum is far behind Bitcoin, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to around 0.485. Even though Bitcoin ETF also experienced capital outflows last night, ETH still needs time to reverse the trend.
However, I believe this is only a matter of weeks. At the current selling speed, it will only take 25 days for Grayscale ETHE to be sold out, and not all of them will be sold. Therefore, I think that in two weeks at most, ETH's trend will be free from the impact of selling pressure.
The market returns to the upward channel, and Bitcoin returns to above $67,000
The market began to return to the upward channel, and Bitcoin stood at $67,000 again. This is mainly because the market has digested the negative impact of the Mentougou compensation, and major CEX platforms have already completed a lot of compensation. I mentioned before that this kind of compensation will have a negative impact on sentiment before it happens, but once the compensation begins, everyone will naturally find that the market can digest these BTC without falling. Similar to the previous sale of the German government, the price fell briefly and then rebounded quickly.
Altcoin market generally rose, and all sectors performed strongly
The altcoin market has also seen a general rise, with all sectors performing very well. The daily increases of $ORDI, $SATS, $STX and other currencies in the Bitcoin ecosystem are between 15% and 20%, especially $SATS. The Bevm team developed an L2 chain based on $SATS, which uses $SATS as the gas for this chain and also has deflation and staking mechanisms. This meme-based chain modification is absolutely a first, which gives $sats greater room for imagination and may even surpass $ORDI in the future.
In the meme track, every rebound is the vanguard. Several old cat and dog currencies such as $POPCAT, $Brett, $michi, and $MEW have all had good growth. $mumu, $MAD, etc. are old trees sprouting new buds, and suddenly doubled in price.
In the politifi track, Harris's new meme $karris exploded 4 times last night,
Mainstream politifi such as $Trump, $MAGA, and $Kama also performed well.
In terms of Dogecoin, the Olympic theme $Phryges suddenly increased by 100 times, $Uspepe blue leather American hat Pepe also increased by more than 10 times, and the Street Fighter character $Ehonda increased by 100 times, with a 24-hour trading volume of more than 11 million. In short, the current meme market is very rich, and everyone can choose different meme currencies according to their own funds and risk preferences. Personally, I feel that it is no different from playing DeFi Dogecoin before. The key is to do a good job of stop profit and stop loss, and don't be greedy.
Today's hotly discussed coin in the market - XRP
According to reports, British cryptocurrency Arch ax is brewing a financial revolution, planning to process up to $50 trillion in tokenized value through the XRP ledger. This feat highlights the unlimited potential of XRP and gives wings to its value. With the dust settled on Ripple's three-and-a-half-year legal battle, institutional investors may refocus on XRP, and its investment value will be re-examined and explored, which is expected to further push up market prices. At the same time, the circulation supply of XRP has shrunk rapidly, exacerbating the imbalance between market supply and demand, providing strong support for price increases. Well-known analyst JackTheRippler predicts that XRP is expected to usher in the 100-yuan era after the legal dispute is resolved. His firm belief has injected strong confidence into investors. Altcoin Daily predicts that the price of XRP is expected to rise by 729% by 2025, showing their extreme optimism and expectations for the future development of XRP.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has a vision of a $5 trillion cryptocurrency market. If that vision comes true, XRP could soar to $100.
That’s all for today’s article. We are currently in a bull market, and things are turbulent. We share passwords every day.
