Bitcoin has experienced a significant gain of around 15% over the past two weeks, recovering from the $55,800 support level. BTC's derivatives data indicates a moderate bullish outlook in the long term. However, despite its recent rally and high liquidity, Bitcoin remaining below critical EMA levels may hinder the short-term recovery.
Bitcoin, which has increased by 15% in the last two weeks, has made a strong comeback from the $ 55,800 support level. This move allowed Bitcoin to break above the 200-day EMA and enter the high liquidity zone, offering some stability. However, traders may need to be careful; If Bitcoin falls below the 20 and 50-day EMAs, it could seriously delay the recovery process.
Bitcoin recently broke out of its bullish chart pattern after reaching the Point of Control (POC) level, which indicates the highest trading volume at certain price points. It has fallen nearly 3% in the last 24 hours and is trading at $64,304. Although the recovery from the $55,800 support level indicates a significant pullback, the price must remain above critical EMA levels to continue the upward momentum.
After fluctuating between $55,800 and $71,600 for more than four months, Bitcoin suffered a monthly decline of 21% in early July. A classic rising wedge formation has formed on the daily chart, which usually predicts a trend reversal. As we approached the POC point, the expected break occurred. However, the high liquidity zone acted as a buffer against extreme volatility in the short term, ensuring the price remained above the 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs.
Derivatives data shows that open interest in Bitcoin options increased despite the volume decline. This shows that traders are opening new positions in anticipation of long-term volatility. Despite recent price declines, the dominance of long positions indicates cautious optimism and hope for recovery among small traders.
Although the RSI is in a sharp downtrend, it has not yet fallen below the 50 level, indicating that buying pressure is continuing. A close of the RSI below this level could confirm weakening buyer interest. Additionally, attention should be paid to a potential downtrend crossover in the MACD lines. This could cause Bitcoin to break below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and test the $60,300 support level. There is a high probability of a recovery at this level because multiple support points are converging at this level.
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