Recently, the difficulty of meme transactions in the Solana ecosystem has gradually increased, and the number of "golden dogs" has decreased. However, in this environment, there are still a number of "smart wallets" that are still making huge profits. Which addresses are still "printing money", what transaction characteristics do they have, and what indicators are the key to success?
In this article, Odaily sorted out the front-row holding addresses of 27 popular, large-market meme tokens and made summary statistics of their data, totaling 1,080 wallet addresses, to answer the above questions. in:
Market cap: greater than $1 million, including a handful of tokens over $10 million ($rocky) and tokens over $100 million ($BILLY);
Front row addresses: the top 40 holding addresses of each token, each address has a profit of thousands of dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the corresponding token;
Data source: Mainly from GMGN, some win rate data from cielo.
Preprocessing and fractional algorithms
This section details the sample processing methods, statistical dimensions and fractional algorithms. Readers who only want to know the conclusion can directly check the next chapter.
preprocessing
The following processing was performed on 1,080 front-row wallet addresses
LP addresses and exchange addresses (such as Matcha, Gate.io, etc.) are removed;
Duplicate addresses are eliminated (the same address becomes the front row for multiple high market capitalization tokens);
Addresses that have never purchased any tokens in the 30th day are removed;
Addresses whose absolute value of profit in 30 days is less than $10 are eliminated (due to major conflicts with the subsequent evaluation system, they will not be included for the time being);
Addresses whose winning rates cannot be calculated by GMGN and cielo will not be included for the time being.
After processing, a total of 541 wallet addresses remain, which are evaluated through the following dimensions:
statistical dimension
Wallets are evaluated around winning rate, stability, and profitability, and scores are calculated through the following six dimensions:
30-day wallet win rate;
The average number of purchases to profit (30-day profit ÷ 30-day purchase count);
The average number of sales versus profit (profit on 30 days ÷ number of sales on 30 days);
Total profit amount;
The absolute value of the proportion of the top three profits to the total profit (the higher the proportion, the more unstable the profit, and the lower the score. It may also be that a single token makes a lot of profit, and the rest is a total loss, and the total profit is very small low, resulting in a high ratio);
The absolute value of the proportion of the top three losses to the total profit (the higher the proportion, the greater the retracement, and the lower the score);
Score calculation method
Z-Score (standard score) is used here to calculate the score. Each of the above six indicators will be distributed in the [0, 1] interval after being calculated using Z-Score, so the highest score will be 6 points.
Who is making a lot of money?
After processing and calculation by the above method, the highest score is 4.85 points. This address has only traded 42 times in the past 30 days, with a winning rate of 100%. It made a profit of US$106,000 on the 30th, and a total profit of US$436,000. The three largest losses were added Up to just $8,000.
The lowest score is 1.1 points. This address traded 29 times in 30 days, with a winning rate of 0%, and a loss of US$38,000 on the 30th. The highlight was that the three largest profits totaled US$40,000, but the three largest losses totaled US$38,000.
Characteristics of top ten masters
Calculate the average of the addresses with comprehensive scores in the top ten. The data is as follows:
30-day wallet winning rate: 63.55% (the average of the next 90 people is 63.58%)
Average number of purchases to profit: $4,717 per purchase (average for next 90 is $623)
Average number of sales versus profit: $4,090 per sale (average for next 90 is $628)
Total profit amount: US$980,000 (average value for the next 90 people is US$279,000);
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profits: 90.8% (the average of the next 90 is 90.67%)
The absolute value of the top three losses to total profits: 11.07% (the average of the next 90 is 11.62%)
It can be concluded that the top 100 players are almost the same in strength, and the top 10 players only have a small advantage in retracement control. When other data are almost the same, the difference between addresses 11-100 in indicators 2 and 3 is mainly because the amount of each purchase is relatively small, so the scores are low.
The top ten addresses are:
6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz
6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU
4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT
9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf
GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQi
DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm
FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j
69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9
7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ
4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t
What is the gap between 101st and 200th place?
The average wallet data of users with scores from 101st to 200th is as follows:
30-day wallet winning rate: 45%
Average number of purchases to profit: $317
Average number of sales versus profit: $425
Total profit: $129,000
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit: 145%
The absolute value of the top three losses to total profits: 25%
It can be seen that there are considerable gaps in the 6 dimensions. The most obvious gap is between indicator 2 "average number of purchases to profit" and indicator 6 loss ratio. This may mean that when the winning rate is insufficient, people are more keen to take action. Buying, resulting in insufficient profits and amplified retracements.
What did the ten worst people do?
0-day wallet winning rate: 17%
Average number of purchases versus profit: -$1,0797
Average number of sales versus profit: -$2,3547
Total profit: -$146,000
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit: 2,092%
The absolute value of the top three losses to total profits: 642%
It is worth noting that among the ten addresses with the lowest scores, three addresses made the largest profits of US$694,000, US$403,000, and US$150,000 respectively, but their final total profits were very low.
What's the key to success?
In trading, it is often difficult to take into account multiple indicators such as winning rate, profit-loss ratio, retracement, etc. What aspect should we focus on to strengthen the most effective way to increase the net worth growth of the account in meme trading?
The Pearson correlation coefficient is used here to calculate the relationship between multiple indicators and the final score. The conclusions are as follows:
Win rate has the strongest correlation with points (0.610), illustrating that Solana's meme is still an extremely fast PvP battlefield, and maintaining win rate is more important than maintaining profit and loss ratio (Diamond Hand failed).
The second strongest correlation is the maximum loss ratio (-0.495), which shows that controlling the retracement is also a key factor, requiring traders to control participating positions or stop losses in time (those who like single hanging stud may join the ten-person package).
The correlation coefficients between other indicators and scores all fall into the "weak correlation category."
The number of shots is completely unrelated to the score, which means that whether it is a wild P and a fierce P, or an occasional shot, the result is basically the same (which may mean that the participation of most pump.fun tokens is to roll the dice, which ultimately complies with the law of large numbers).
in conclusion
To sum up, on the PvP battlefield of Solana memes, the key to victory is to escape quickly and lose less.
Odaily reminds me that there are risks in meme investment. This article is only used as a reference. The specific investment targets and styles must be determined by the investors themselves.
Appendix (Top 100 Smart Money Addresses)
6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz
6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU
4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT
9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf
GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQi
DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm
FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j
69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9
7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ
4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t
5wPWthsivjuGi43WbTo5LdSjDTJ8pXSSHyfXWVojJjUF
27nKnCT3DD5NLJw3xbq3KDL3thx6KTe6DmrRCbi2uszE
2zc9rfAQybucpfQxdgW9otWBFnqxDoz5Fva1vD2wmaha
6HRZ8qLqmAuJ3anksqAEHLqwN7akoCU1ZjihQyoQbK64
ENRayX3P4At1eBj87TZJvZT1JVCAykwwYB5SjKT6Y2ZA
D49JMtrnenWigKNWxrACtyXfybZLjKsufXvdcD1ng8BA
DVFpA1mKBWSEuyuiWXQEdrhkyZ8mSPM2Fe7y1KhbbqxT
7HUpxcqNkUF2sGsNcTPMTWTVXok9mUiG8QcRJHM61jys
8deJ9xeUvXSJwicYptA9mHsU2rN2pDx37KWzkDkEXhU6
CeoqFgsd6sob3S1Ka7qDnXj1e76MweXx2cwUrjVqmRmv
6p8cxa2G17qaJf4LnoioyQ2vjmfaY91hc2cYghQiovXf
9NmtJ6MpuH8mzNnbQHvwaVpKbs3T51nr6VMFRTshNCMS
8r5Y6gRPBLoiT4jSGgpMwPPn4PitdSuKqDGPUx2aU5Wh
79CmfobG1sLjUZRyT9nUzfwy5xcJuWETMqTMVxFqNFwh
6AtHTM75tnpvazEwMBmd2spbxcQFTBqrNxNKUvTWxUMp
A4vCNjNJxs6UxsHT99oNkNZaoLBBYS7ZF4RwaPwZ7PKp
8yJFWmVTQq69p6VJxGwpzW7ii7c5J9GRAtHCNMMQPydj
EKWkKPRGEQzTHW32j7i4hbtzoW6s3ZGAfL7T8RkSvrhJ
FfCmMs68EYGkd3mnMf7T7uLRxEh5z1cY7TVpqawQxCEF
HbzEtahBdLk61kCP9wgqEecvP5oebFaqWHCANJupYM8Q
Ffb9SFFAFgBhiEU1XUj3r4JEz5Rva7SUfEAJWFinpUau
Eb5u4wu1bjjyeytxiuatuqNGGQLFFHjcW9rLeTiGzrMf
HS8BjVNAT4m36hLnD3GZvc74Y8iMVkx7pYhiMSDv1pWm
AVAZvHLR2PcWpDf8BXY4rVxNHYRBytycHkcB5z5QNXYm
12L63BUpPKi8ZDdD1Kj5dsyPcozjAc1vTQpVwLbBa19H
6YQSZp2mnp8BUMyMkT7MPg33YHXtnJVBPvS8wNStiF6H
9ru9BSVFSUqSRQFwdjjnkzQGf9yUdpRTjpjXPKc4BvxX
4mbEf27m7XVGSuFpiAQiRxCyX5Epu2qd2gevY2joPmQk
Cgzgw9agWXSJPHPWXFoM4W5iKeUi1dNVREfq5u86XMKx
ExCsisSuZuXmnuPMNVUiR7zTejfN3kmZdVidSExQE1vc
BrFcBzjdb6iWgnogjaDws8CxnB6ApWtacCtUtsgzEHCf
9oTsfYWULoX9V9X1xJosKquiv2RUxia6XTLZHn6aa5BN
5mta8pCqi2Zm3kFWLyMXseZtAFpHd5m2vHLh7N7hWyqX
3kebnKw7cPdSkLRfiMEALyZJGZ4wdiSRvmoN4rD1yPzV
8Ga6pH8cpxspHEeF9Q3nc6BTgHCxnMwMJvvvecErLux7
Bgm3tCLEcUQweuDcYARyoXioLCQQ3pdMYLMoneKdKP2m
9vuf62XM3nf1TqceYYfd5RUawZ1rvmVYJJRmhc5e9Lgt
HiJ46Rrgdx7hmsgaibmi9LEM7U5nsHmVD22rngwk4Udc
7UiWFNRmbwFph7247WTzfxGHqELDigqpsiysb3y3tKQf
E8hK8YbE8iBPywf4Q9TahgAT42Az2jgJL6uCHcpkP196
ARGivPcb6uapd5N3EFMAzpWDZ4wRxriMH1kkdeFHYUvS
5cN5vAuXpRfE56QJTKFxw7m3UkuVVcZMjTwGb2DQZkrG
DKwybycDSWidrHfpMjaahUsT1Yid3kig86ncXPAGe7AU
EceAXcGP69ZKCnXougTSpuHoGrLZT7e9hkxXmDPx8Qcd
GYGazbafxrSffoFF6xPUwVmqnV8CziwkD89KijUorhHi
H6azfrDwWFmQav8UMLiofEi73q6uZVv9geNqpy6VQXV9
ErG9AkyQQvf7j8rha71dtba2zxqmEfPfc819TMzAbnWk
B4M9RqyTF9jF5Zb8ZG9ZeLkvWXCeKMAq6TdE9L4NqUr2
HkiCryXaSgvYPHenUv2YYfcoYd8HcNgUUDKZdScpyP6Z
99qwBygWc1nPo9AvKgLbKDXxSkdmvy5CXTNk5CWVwzGT
5B3wpkaPZAKSZpYxmyMx5xNpeRZy67WdFNGQJToziAHP
DosUh54Scj73jcPepYmiFPAzmn3oQYyd94FZqwNmBeGC
Hp7fx5PoK6jg7brkJYiQ1fdAR73fZpwtFZCuUPTY8pVg
ArSJoBSqugxk8s1ub56YENhDvHXneCnfXJujzpugkCbT
Et45ydaesDDBN1zjXA9m7iTqgatTnxL6MrMgtWNfCbuX
8A4yM724ep3dqv9GQ7Rx3B9QcV8Tjc2H1toHAnEEmAeK
JDkA2zGDoL184ZCxkETmZMUucZve3S9iCpCygK7X383m
7dMyG1PVNpqz9FpxyGAg7kkhVQmQ9zUJHwQw6RHs4vyo
Eq38QQAc2auEEoXKx2iV7sXhGzmUaVMwf2SzHmw6cg4u
7fLjm9dYn9chMXX58Au2H1p3cwoTvh3Ri3erm1bxWXk2
HF9G11htJrFUGD5cpj8t9Fks7DZ4eJy78YqmrAZquydg
4bUb5YV7zcvabHsPd7NTpvMmbdMJkTwAtvY269PjNFh8
FvTBarKFhrnhL9Q55bSJnMmAdXisayUb5u96eLejhMF9
4ZCo5NLb1KxRymHaWh341WidGF3nYqBGanhHoq4HUGaf
CuEeVczBi4ahyc6kwDodA24CzLVbk5wWUaMnL21da8Ws
8MaVa9kdt3NW4Q5HyNAm1X5LbR8PQRVDc1W8NMVK88D5
CPydqKcEEeKTR6wt3L15G8S5Ea4bxjS2vvjiW9vw1UwK
34ZEH778zL8ctkLwxxERLX5ZnUu6MuFyX9CWrs8kucMw
6CHhn9g1F7msGdekeJTtAcC6EsaEeHBCn6xz6hKpqhsQ
CMcHRygKpNG2Jx83T1cTiqAvg55mYXv6uSwjhFzLwQFc
4q7rNU1nRUWY14vaLPpzpc2C756UQE36vaDwphBpLf2s
AgMroLKUzcvHcvS79xDJmg9ZeuvReyvNxTLunyzqh1nZ
FxqnyvqQbqvfzKZ7uNgu3aFfJzD7FPYi4J7foMwYJgMu
Gb8hF3dex5XsDYMFThaCUvLQngshMJbKuU4fc9PjiVp1
6Y9shDFcKwXh16SR1hatzSsWCBQctjY8VCGbyLWY8NFp
DKgvpfttzmJqZXdavDwTxwSVkajibjzJnN2FA99dyciK
4n1pWS2RLCg4tRoWU3RCpf5YT6tP41rBDJ25TEyi5cMK
5aR9jGBLnko6YfbnC8heWhFzwtf267StEUSobN6N8Eap
9nhwAE4d2FPeRngHSvDfz4J5JqCxhAnm6xL88wnNKAbu
CVu6fpZFZMnWvQfun1yKjje3kV8L14i5knQ9PLKyzLE
62LBFpTA85Z4hHYofP79NiSozxHQWTh88MQzmFFRbgQo
GTPPYMjBbuAp4hbQTHidEMwS3Gyy34ysR4fYLRd6aPjt
2m5498hY3hpSvm1pVyZwwyU6bpQGFGu3PADSoEoZFXQB
CySCk3xgpsnkYe1B4XByg75UiHhwM8XEv5FVDCKGGdr4
HPx7GxQjaVvox8kcBvCkUKSSh4oYm4TUeB8fXG9oGuZM
HFtjJ4Ud1bn4gv1sZznBffpRDYdLK53vCLoDhm9Ks82R
28ipXVfkdmu1PDowCHbcSfzkpH9edZmSiVoDhY5xGVfR
3ZXQXrHAqNUcFgApjS9BDBkG8J14h5rxrQNAmAwqqEGH
FTKTNFqeu9wzckDzmsaL1dTgB19BK6fE6DMTHdbETtd1
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reprinted with permission from: "Foresight News"
Original author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily