Ethereum ETF's first day of listing 🥷 and speculation on future price trends
1⃣ Transaction size:
The total trading volume of 9 Ethereum spot ETFs on the first day reached US$1.112 billion
About 23% of the first-day trading volume of the Bitcoin spot ETF
Main product performance
Grayscale (ETHE): The highest volume, at $456 million
BlackRock (ETHA): $240 million in volume
Bitwise (BITB): Outstanding performance with $204 million in net inflows
2⃣ Market reaction:
Ethereum price fluctuated slightly, falling from a high of $3,541 to around $3,481
3⃣ Focus on the changes in Grayscale Ethereum ETF holdings:
ETHE (Grayscale Ethereum Trust) fund flow:
Net outflow of $484 million, about 5% of the asset size (at this rate, it will take 20 days to complete)
$15.1 million of that was transferred to the newly launched Ethereum Mini Trust
Grayscale product strategy adjustment:
Launching a low-fee "mini" version of the ETF (ETH) to attract small investors
Transfer approximately 292,000 ETH to new products to provide liquidity support
Note: The main difference between Grayscale Trust ETH and ETHE
Rate Structure:
ETH: Initial fee rate 0%, 0.15% after half a year or when the scale reaches 2 billion
ETHE: Total expense ratio 2.50%
Current asset size:
ETH: about $1 billion
ETHE: about $9 billion
Target customers:
ETH: Small investors
ETHE: Institutional Investors
4⃣ Ethereum price trend prediction
ETF fund inflow expectations:
Analysts generally expect ETF inflows to be between $3.2 billion and $6.4 billion in a year;
Wintermute's forecast is more conservative, between $3.2 billion and $4 billion;
Bloomberg Intelligence believes that it could reach 20% of Bitcoin ETF inflows;
The Franklin Templeton team is more optimistic, predicting it could reach 30%.
Ethereum Price Prediction:
1. Short term (1-3 months):
Considering that the market has partially digested the news of ETF listing, the increase is expected to be relatively mild
Forecast range: $3,500-4,200
2. Medium term (3-6 months):
Assuming that ETF funds continue to flow in, refer to the impact of Bitcoin ETF
Conservative forecast: $4,200-5,000 (up 20-40%)
Optimistic forecast: $5,000-5,800 (up 40-65%)
3. Long term (6-12 months):
Consider the cumulative effect and potential bull cycles
Conservative forecast (by Wintermute): $5,800-6,500;
Neutral forecast (according to Bloomberg Intelligence): $6,500-7,500;
Optimistic forecast (by Franklin Templeton): $7,500-9,000
Walter White's prediction: Starting from $10,000
Note: Ethereum price movements may be more dramatic than Bitcoin because of its smaller market capitalization and greater impact from capital inflows;
If ETF inflows reach the expected upper limit ($6.4 billion), it may bring about a more significant price increase;
Technological progress and ecosystem development could serve as additional catalysts driving prices.
To summarize: 🧐
Based on the historical performance of Bitcoin ETFs and various institutions’ forecasts of Ethereum ETF capital inflows, it can be expected that Ethereum is expected to achieve significant growth in the next 6-12 months. Under conservative estimates, the price of Ethereum may reach around US$6,500 before the end of the year; under an optimistic scenario, it may challenge the US$10,000 mark.
As time goes by and more data is accumulated, we will be able to more accurately assess the actual impact of the Ethereum ETF on the market and its driving effect on prices. In any case, the launch of the ETF has opened up a new investment channel for Ethereum, which is expected to attract more institutional and retail investors to participate. This is undoubtedly an important milestone in the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.
Note: The above content is biased, pure ETH, not used as an investment basis, mainly because Lao Bai has the goods. Thank you all, welcome to follow
@bclaobai
。
Reference links for this article:
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/grayscale
https://etfs.grayscale.com/eth
https://etfs.grayscale.com/ethe
https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2430821
