Source: Bankless
Author: Golem (@web3_golem)
This week, affected by the changes in the US election and the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, BTC and ETH rebounded. So how will the rise and fall of altcoins perform in the next three months? The Bankless analysis team recently made predictions on the rise and fall of 10 altcoins in the next three months. This article will sort out the predictions and reasons of the Bankless analyst team, and summarize the previous predictions for readers' reference.
Previous predicted win rate: 43.7%
At the beginning of July, when the market was generally falling, Bankless predicted the trend of 16 tokens in the next three months. For details, please see "Will it rise or fall in the next three months? Bankless predicts the trend of 16 tokens". So far, its prediction success rate is about 43.7%, and 7 of the 16 tokens predicted are in line with the expected trend.
In the L2 sector, all the predictions were correct, and the top L2 tokens performed worse than ETH. ETH has risen by about 25% from the beginning of July to now, while ARB (down 5%), BLAST (down 23%), OP (down 17%), and STRK (no significant increase or decrease) have all experienced declines.
But the predictions for the L1 and SLD sectors have failed somewhat. As of now, SOL and ETHFI have risen by 23% and 9% respectively, while AVAX, which was predicted to rise, has fallen by 8%.
DeFi Section
Maker（MKR）
Opinion: Neutral
Reason: Huge growth potential, but highly affected by cycles
Forecast period: July 22, 2024 to October 22, 2024
Predicted price: 2 USD
Prediction of currency price performance so far: No significant change
The Bankless analysis team is neutral on MKR's subsequent performance. If the crypto bull run continues, investors may recognize Maker's huge growth potential, but may also face the risk of losses during market downturns, especially in the event of Ethena's bankruptcy.
In 2023, Maker increases DAI supply by minting stablecoins directly in money markets where liquidity is in high demand, initially through its Spark lending subDAO and now also through the third-party Morpho application. In 2024, the rise of high-yield Ethena synthetic USD collateral allows Maker to lend DAI at a premium, and the stability of the collateral allows borrowers to take on debt at extremely high loan-to-value ratios.
Maker currently generates $281 million in annualized fee revenue, making it one of the most valuable cryptocurrencies. If the crypto market continues to grow in the future, its current fully diluted price-to-sales ratio of 9.6 times is not too high.
Instadapp（INST）
View: Bullish
Reason: The introduction of new features gives it an advantage in the DeFi competition
Forecast period: July 16, 2024 to October 16, 2024
Predicted price: $2.2
Forecasted price performance to date: down 1.36%
The Bankless analysis team believes that INST may outperform the market as crypto investors seek alternatives to tokens with no real value, while Fluid's push could increase Instadapp's adoption and revenue.
From June to July, previously underperforming DeFi tokens began to attract the attention of cryptocurrency traders because of real income and real fundamentals. Instadapp is one of them. Instadapp is a platform that aggregates multiple DeFi protocols into a unified smart contract layer. The Instadapp team launched Fluid this year, which combines money markets and DEXs in a new way, built on a unified Instadapp liquidity layer, enabling users to earn returns from collateral and gain greater flexibility in borrowing.
Stacks（STX）
Opinion: Neutral
Reason: Fundamentals are improving, but there is a risk of being defined as a security
Forecast period: July 15, 2024 to October 15, 2024
Predicted price: $1.88
Prediction of currency price performance so far: No significant change
From 2017 to 2019, Hiro Systems (formerly Blockstack) raised $70 million through token sales; it conducted its first SEC-qualified public token sale in 2019 through a Reg A+ offering, and sold tokens to accredited investors and international investors under the Reg D and S exemptions, respectively, during this period.
After Stack transitioned to a decentralized proof-of-transfer consensus mechanism, Hiro Systems filed an application with the SEC in January 2021 stating that it would no longer provide "basic management services for the Stacks blockchain" in order to clear STX from being a security.
The SEC disagreed with Hiro’s statement and launched an investigation into Stacks later that year. However, the SEC announced last Friday that it does not intend to take enforcement action against Hiro Systems.
The Bankless analysis team remains neutral on Stacks. Although the SEC has confirmed that Hiro has not violated any laws in its token sales, the announcement did not provide any clear explanation on whether STX is a security, so there is a significant unresolved risk. But from a fundamental perspective, the Stacks Nakamoto upgrade will separate the transaction waiting time from Bitcoin's 10-minute block time to provide more immediate confirmation, which may have a positive impact on the token price.
Maple Finance（MPL）
View: Bearish
Reason: Limited product competitiveness, token inflation increases selling pressure
Forecast period: July 10, 2024 to October 10, 2024
Predicted price: $11.64
Predicted currency price performance to date: Up 65.64%
The Bankless analysis team is not optimistic about MPL's subsequent performance because its cash management products have limited adoption compared to other products, unsecured loans may default as they have done many times in the past, crypto-secured loans provided to a large number of borrowers are likely to be liquidated in a market downturn, the incentive effect of the points program is also limited, and the increased future token inflation will also bring selling pressure.
While Maple’s TVL has nearly tripled since March, the token price is down 60% from that month’s high. The rally was driven primarily by overcollateralized USDC loans for BTC and SOL to a small number of whitelisted traders.
On June 8th, at the ETHCC conference, Maple announced a 50% increase in point deposits for its “retail-focused” product Syrup, simply by redepositing assets into existing Maple pools — primarily its highest-returning high-yield secured lending pools. Point rewards come from the 23% token inflation approved in proposal MIP-009, which is expected to continue. Recipients will be able to convert their points into an unknown amount of SYRUP when MPL is converted to tokens, likely this year.
Ondo Finance（ONDO）
View: Bearish
Reason: Valuation is too high and the market cannot meet it
Forecast period: July 8, 2024 to October 8, 2024
Predicted price: $0.92
Forecasted currency price performance to date: Up 13.52%
The Bankless analysis team expects that market growth in the coming months will be difficult to justify ONDO’s massive valuation.
From March to early June, Ondo’s token price and TVL tripled, but in the month prior to the analysis, ONDO’s market cap shrank by a third as inflows all but ceased.
Ondo’s $550 million in deposits yields about 5%, and the protocol’s annualized revenue is just under $30 million, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio of 303 times, meaning investors have already made a bet on ONDO’s future growth.
While the potential market for on-chain money market instruments is assumed to be in the trillions of dollars, the continued lack of growth will make it difficult to justify ONDO’s massive valuation. If blockchain truly achieves mainstream adoption, Ondo will simply tokenize other asset managers’ products and will be quickly replaced by the actual issuing entity (i.e. BlackRock).
Other Sections
BNB Chain（BNB）
View: Bearish
Reason: The ecosystem is weak, and some businesses in the United States are not enough to support the upward trend.
Forecast period: July 19, 2024 to October 19, 2024
Predicted price: $593.54
Forecasted price performance so far: down 1%
The Bankless analysis team believes that there is no reason for BNB to rise due to the news that Binance US has obtained court authorization to invest in U.S. Treasuries, and that BNB Chain on-chain indicators have been declining since June, lacking the momentum for the continued development of its ecosystem.
On July 19, the court responsible for the SEC v. Binance case approved BAM Management Entity, which manages Binance US, to invest corporate assets and customer legal funds entrusted to BitGo in 1-month U.S. Treasury bonds, but only if no third party (including other Binance entities) participates in the investment and Binance US maintains sufficient reserves to fulfill legal withdrawals.
While the potential to earn yield on an exchange account may attract users to Binance US, who may then be tempted to buy BNB, it is unclear whether this feature would appeal to crypto traders considering Coinbase already offers a USDC yield program.
Mantle（MNT）
Opinion: Neutral
Reason: Although the competitive advantage is obvious, the overall pressure on the L2 track is huge
Forecast period: July 18, 2024 to October 18, 2024
Predicted price: $0.85
Forecasted price performance so far: Up 2.85%
The Bankless analysis team remains neutral on MNT's subsequent performance. Although Mantle has the ability to compete with other L2s, the industry generally faces valuation resistance brought about by increased supply, and Mantle will need to dilute its tokens to implement incentive plans.
In 2024, MNT has been the best performing L2 token, outperforming key competitors such as MATIC, ARB, and OP by more than 100%, and becoming one of the few cryptocurrencies to perform roughly on par with ETH year-to-date at the time of analysis.
Unlike other L2s, Mantle Network is unique in that it uses MNT as gas payment (which increases token utility), relatively higher liquidity than competitors (which alleviates potential future selling pressure), and a huge $2.5 billion in liquidity (to fund future user incentives).
Despite the advantages of MNT, L2 in general faces tremendous pressure from continued token unlocking and new token creation. In addition, Mantle ecosystem activity has decreased since June, and as users exit the ecosystem, tokens may become reflexive, and the Mantle treasury is 90% MNT, which means that when tokens are distributed as incentive airdrops, there will be selling pressure.
Live Peer（LPT）
View: Bearish
Reason: Limited product-market fit, tokens are overvalued
Forecast period: July 17, 2024 to October 17, 2024
Predicted price: $16.98
Forecasted price performance to date: Down 9.19%
The Bankless analysis team believes that Livepeer has limited market fit with decentralized video streaming, and due to the continued lack of growth, LPT has been overvalued and its performance in the coming months will not be objective.
On July 17, Grayscale, a well-known asset management company in the cryptocurrency field, announced the launch of its decentralized AI fund, which aims to provide investors with blockchain-based AI protocols, which Grayscale believes "can help mitigate the fundamental risks that accompany the popularization of AI technology." Livepeer is one of the five assets included in the fund and will receive an 8.6% allocation.
Founded in 2017, Livepeer is a decentralized video infrastructure network that provides live and on-demand streaming services. Despite its years of existence, Livepeer has seen limited adoption, with revenue of no more than a few hundred dollars per day.
ETH Name Service（ENS）
View: Bearish
Reason: Tokens are overhyped and actual applications have not increased
Forecast period: July 11, 2024 to October 11, 2024
Predicted price: $26.07
Forecasted price performance to date: down 3.72%
The Bankless analytics team believes ENS is more valuable than ever and that its lack of growth will soon drive the price in line with fundamentals.
At the time of the analysis, ENS was up 90% from its May bottom, likely driven by the possibility of an ETH spot ETF receiving SEC approval. Despite the token’s surge in price, actual ENS usage has fallen sharply during this period; weekly fees fell to just $192,000 on July 1, the lowest level since July 2021.
Speculation on ENS as a high beta yield on Ethereum has pushed the token price to 243x fees, the highest level on record, but unfortunately, the growth needed to sustain the price increase has not materialized. If ENS was priced at the same multiple as last August, the token would be trading at $3.46, 50% below its all-time low and 85% below the analysis.
Celestia（TIA）
View: Bearish
Reason: Low income and high inflation
Forecast period: July 9, 2024 to October 9, 2024
Predicted price: $7.17
Prediction of currency price performance so far: No significant change
Despite the significant price retracement, the Bankless analytics team still expects the market to be reluctant to digest a significant token inflation on October 31st, which would roughly double TIA’s liquid supply.
TIA introduced a “stake-to-earn” narrative, coincided with a relatively frothy crypto market after the airdrop, and surprised holders with a 10x return in just four months before peaking in early February 2024.
Despite the promise of providing a lot of airdrop wealth to TIA stakers who protect data on other cryptoeconomic networks, only a few projects actually target TIA stakers for airdrops, and the tokens received only slightly increase the yield on staked TIA, while staking income mainly comes from inflationary TIA tokens.
For some L2s, cheap data availability with semi-degraded security guarantees may be a desirable feature, however, Celestia seems more like a charity than a commercial organization, as the revenue it is likely to generate is extremely limited and will need to be subsidized through inflation.
