At present, many institutions have estimated the scale of inflows of ETH ETFs:
Grayscale Research Team expects the demand for US spot Ethereum ETFs to reach 25%-30% of the demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. A large part of Ethereum supply (such as staked ETH) may not be used for ETFs.
ASXN Digital Asset Research believes that when the ETH ETF goes online, ETHE holders will have 2 months to exit at a price range close to the par value. This is a key variable that will help prevent ETHE outflows, especially exit flows. ASXN's internal estimate is that $800 million to $1.2 billion will flow in per month. This is calculated by taking a market value-weighted average of the monthly Bitcoin inflows and then multiplying it by the market value of ETH.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that the Ethereum spot ETF may obtain 10% to 15% of the assets obtained by the Bitcoin spot ETF, reaching $5 billion to $8 billion.
Galaxy expects the net inflow of ETH ETF to reach 20-50% of the net inflow of BTC ETF in the first five months, with a target of 30%, which means a net inflow of $1 billion per month.
Shenyu predicts that the main inflow of funds in the initial listing period between June and December may come from retail investors, accounting for 80 to 90% of the total funds, and institutional users will participate less. Considering that ETHE is similar to GBTC, the market may face some arbitrage and selling pressure. Whether it can withstand such selling pressure remains to be seen. After December, institutional investors may gradually enter the market.
But the market generally believes that the inflow brought by ETH ETF is limited.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou of JPMorgan Chase predicted at the end of May that the inflow of Ethereum ETF may only be equivalent to a small part of Bitcoin.
Citigroup expects ETF inflows to account for 30%-35% of Bitcoin inflows. CoinDesk cited the report as saying that this figure will reach $4.7 billion to $5.4 billion in the next six months.
Both banks believe that Bitcoin has a first-mover advantage and emphasize that the functions provided by Ethereum cannot be achieved through ETFs, thus limiting demand.
