News focus

1. Binance responded to the CYBER current account earning and financial management incident, saying that the current price difference caused a surge in lending demand, so it was impossible to recover the money in a short time.

2. Bloomberg editorial board published a commentary stating that the SEC should approve the spot Bitcoin ETF first

3. Binance announced that XIRTAM recovered assets are available for collection, only for users who participated in the private sale and public sale

4. ARK INVEST applies for the first spot Ethereum ETF in the United States

5. CFTC Commissioner said that it will release digital asset regulatory standards recommendations next month

Bitcoin is still fluctuating, and it rebounded after touching 25,300 again overnight. The current price is basically the same as yesterday's price. The ups and downs have returned to oscillation. The trend of Ethereum is slightly more elastic than Bitcoin, mainly because Bloomberg's ETF analyst said that ARK and 21shares submitted applications for the first spot Ethereum ETF in the United States. Affected by the news, it rebounded briefly and quickly, but the spot ETF of Bitcoin is still pending, so the narrative structure of the market has not changed fundamentally, and the oscillation pattern has not been broken.

As the bitcoin price continues to go sideways, altcoins are everywhere, but most of them are not sustainable, and most of them are one-wave trends. Except for a few strong varieties like UNFI, whose prices continue to rise but whose positions remain unchanged, the rest are weak. At the same time, some oversold varieties have rebounded, the most typical of which is WLD, which finally rebounded after a month of continuous decline. Many altcoins may be worthless, but you can't blindly short them, because you need to be careful of their rapid oversold rebound.

From a technical perspective, the current sideways structure of the big cake continues, and the four-hour and hourly lines are still sawing around the zero axis. The kinetic energy of both long and short sides cannot be dispersed, so the overall shock situation has not changed. The support below is still the lower track of the recent box 25300-25500 area. The first resistance ahead is the 26000 chip concentration area, and the second 26300 long-short watershed remains unchanged. If the rebound does not exceed 26300, it will be regarded as a weak rebound.

The following are some risk points in the market:
Starting from August, the rest of the year, US financial conditions will further tighten, and the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate is heading towards 5%. In the remaining months of this year, the Fed's further interest rate hike will be the biggest risk point for the market in the last few months of this year.
Recently, Saudi Arabia announced that it would cut crude oil production. The logic behind this is that the main logic of the U.S. crude oil market has changed. The demand side has not increased, but the current U.S. inventory is close to the lowest level in the past five years. The current crude oil price has risen significantly, and the rise is likely to continue. Here we pay close attention to the impact of the next crude oil price on inflation and major asset classes.
August, September and October are also the most difficult period for the cryptocurrency industry, but they are also the time to acquire chips at the bottom.

Recommend two lottery coins

QUICK 0.424, yesterday the boss of DWF retweeted the quick project again, maybe he is going to make something happen recently. You can read the reasons for pushing quick before, buy it now and you can eat it again

FET is also a DWF market-making project, the current price is 0.25, no need to rush to buy. The OpenAI conference on November 6th said that some new things will be launched. Let's see if we can buy some at a low point in September-October, there should be good results.

What are the signals of a popular copycat from the beginning to the end?

Early stage

Currency selection:

1. The first type of copycat must have a relatively low market value and has been falling for a long time, with almost no trading volume for a long time (for example, Binance U-Ben has a 24-hour trading volume of less than 20 million)

2. The second type is newly launched and washed out within half a year. Most of them are online and washed out for 1-3 months.

3. The third type is to directly pull the price after going online (this probability is more likely to occur in a bull market

Starting stage:

The first one is a huge volume and then almost fell back to the original position, but the daily line closed with a very long positive line, pulling up the trading volume

The second is to walk slowly like Mario (just like walking up a staircase with small positive lines and small steps, but the trading volume increases slowly from 10 million at the beginning to more than 50 million.

Mid-term

1. The trading volume increases slowly and moves in small steps.

2. The funding rate gradually changes from positive to negative

(For example, from 0.01 at the beginning to -0.01 and then -0.1.......-1)

In this case, you must not short even if it is 1-2 times. Although it has risen by 30% or even 50%, many people have been liquidated at this position.

Later

1. The first daily line appears 20%

2. The second daily line appears 30%

3. Fee limit: In the final stage, Binance will have three common fee rates: -0.75%, -2%, and -2.5%. The daily line will rise by 50% or even 100%, and then the eight-hour settlement will be changed to four-hour or even two-hour settlement.

4. The multiples start to adjust from 20 times (you can open a 25,000u position) to 15 times (you can open a 25,000u position) or even 10 times (you can only open a 25,000u position) or even 8 times (you can only open a 25,000u position).

The great conspiracy will finally come to an end. At this time, we will no longer participate in it. We must control our hands, hold on to our profits and delete our selections!

5. The contract rate started from -2.5% to -2.1% and then dropped to -2%....

6. In the last 15 minutes, the K-line suddenly rises and then suddenly drops 10%-20%. In this case, the peak is reached and the daily line continues to fall until it is cut in half.

7. Bear market (bad market) Take Binance as an example. The 24-hour contract trading volume is about 3 billion, which is almost the top.

The bull market is full and the hot coins can reach 8-10 billion trading volume and then end (witnessed it)

Summary: The bear market, especially the independent market, usually lasts for a short time and ends in 3-5 days. In this case, you must not open a long position, especially if you have reached the point in the later stage, you have to run.

The currencies that appear in the above market include ygg cyber lpt Nmr, etc.