Survey shows that the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts in 2024 may be narrowed, and the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised

According to a report by Deep Tide TechFlow, on November 22, the latest survey by Jinshi Data shows that due to inflationary pressures and the potential impact of Trump's policies, the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts in 2024 may be narrowed.

The survey shows that the core PCE price index is expected to rise by 2.3% next year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. Economists expect the federal funds rate to remain in the range of 3.25% to 3.5% in 2025.

At the same time, the expected GDP growth in the U.S. for 2025 has been raised from the previous 1.8% to 2%, with the probability of economic recession maintained at 25%, the lowest since March 2022.