ID's recent pattern
I didn't want to mention the model coin, because once it follows this model, it proves that this coin is a CX plate, but many fans are asking, so I will simply say that it follows the model, so it has risen for several days in a row. Generally, when the market is sluggish, the model coin will be popular, and this time is no exception. Whether to participate or not depends on your own gambling nature, I will not make any comments or suggestions.
What do you think about the current market cycle?
Old readers all know that we have always emphasized that there will be another big drop in the second half of the year, and the bottom is judged to be around 20,000. However, unless there is a black swan event, the decline will definitely be a slow decline, and the possibility of the bottom being reached in one step in the near future is low. Therefore, the market trend in the second half of the year should be a spiral downward process of decline and rebound, with a series of various copycat performances in the middle, most of which are unpredictable. It is recommended to wait and see for long-term specific operations.
LSD Plate
LSD is the main theme of the next wave of market. I don’t think I need to emphasize it again. As I wrote in my previous long article, the disadvantage of this sector is that the market capitalization of the top currencies is large and has experienced the performance of the previous bull market, and there are not many new projects that show signs of breaking through. But the good news is that from the figure below we can see that a batch of new projects in 2022-2023 are currently on their way out, and their market capitalization is relatively small, and they have the foundation for a hundred times the next bull market.
Share some interesting data
Currently, the largest holding of the top VCs in the crypto world is actually ETH, and none of the top 20 VCs with the largest BTC holdings. This is indeed a bit contrary to my perception. It seems that the next wave of ETH's performance may be better than I expected.
Let’s talk about the mainstream copycat trends in the selected area:
DYDX: Among all the mainstream altcoins in my selected area, it has the strongest trend. This is not determined by its temporary rise and fall, but by its position, which is more advantageous than the current BTC and ETH. DYDX will build a weekly bottom in advance, and it will surely take the lead in soaring after the BTC halving next year.
XRP: It rises and falls with BTC, but is slightly stronger than ETH. It will fall further with the deep adjustment of BTC in the future. The reference range for bottom hunting is 0.29-0.36
SOL: The weekly line is about to form a death cross below the zero axis. The short and medium lines are basically linked with ETH, and will subsequently pull back to below 16.
DOGE: The trend is similar to SOL but faster. The lowest points in the past three months are all below the weekly line and then rebound. The average low point is generally between 0.04950 and 0.05250. The reference for the extreme lowest point is: 0.03795.
MASK: It is linked to ETH but one step faster. In mid-July, the weekly MACD fell below the zero axis, and the 1-day line has bottomed out, so the extent of further decline in the short term will not be too large, but the lowest point before the bull market is still between 1-1.99.
Then sand, mana, axs, dot, uni, etc. are all synchronized with BTC and ETH, but the operation of the adjustment cycle is faster than BTC and ETH. The bull market will lead the surge in BTC and ETH. The first wave of surge is aimed at January and February next year. Therefore, you can buy at low prices continuously from September to November.
What points need to be implemented if you want to make money at this stage?
From the perspective of making money, it is not necessary to have a technical solution. You can also make money if you manage your positions well. In addition, most people who lose money do not deposit their profits, thinking about compound interest, and then pay the money they earn to the counterparty. Only by continuously withdrawing money can the stability of profits be improved. It is difficult to prevent sudden black swan events if you do not withdraw money, which has nothing to do with the level of technology.
From the perspective of making money, you can make a profit without drawing conclusions based on how much you earn. You don’t need any technical analysis to make a profit. You can make a profit by operating according to the four-year cycle of the cryptocurrency BTC. If your position is light enough and you trade products that can withstand volatility, you can make a profit.
On the other hand, the main reason for losses is that you are eager to make money, especially eager to make a lot of money. However, haste makes waste, and one of the fastest ways to ruin a person is to let him make quick money.
Adjust the trading level, manage the position, add skills, endure loneliness, and maintain it for a long time, then you can survive
To make big money, you need to choose the ones with big volatility, new concept currencies, new technologies, new funds, etc., but you also need to do a good job of position management. For the other part of the stable money, you need to choose the ones with small volatility but stable and good returns. You can take large positions in these types of money, such as BTC.
Long-term, medium-term, short-term
1：
For the long term, you need strong logic;
For the mid-term, the price should be low enough;
For short-term trading, you need to run fast enough.
For example, the leaders of the last few rounds of bull markets, such as EOS and dot, have seen their logic change and are no longer viable in the long run.
2: Mid-term, the entry point may not be very low, but the holding cost must be low enough.
In the short term, you just follow various waves, you can rebound from oversold prices, and you can do data market trends (such as the Federal Reserve theme).
3: Short-term technology is the main factor, and fundamentals are the auxiliary factor. Short-term technology is the main factor, and fundamentals are the auxiliary factor.
Before placing an order, you should review the market in advance and buy in advance before the market closes.
4: There are many ways to rise, some are oscillating and gradually rising, and some are directly pulled up and then platform consolidation. So when you choose a variety, you must know where you are.
Don’t think you understand all the big principles after reading this. The purpose here is not to make you understand big principles, but to let you put them into actual practice, so that the next bull market will be relevant to you. I also hope that the next bull market will be relevant to you all, so that it will be meaningful in the currency circle!
