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This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk will not get lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
Weekly Review
This week, from August 28 to September 4, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $28,142 and the lowest price was close to $25,805, with a fluctuation range of about 9.98%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 25379, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
26000–31000: about 3.87 million pieces;
20000~25000: about 1.95 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 20,000-22,000 in the short term is 89%;
The probability that the price will not rise below 28,000-30,000 in the short term is 63%.
Important news
Economic News
The U.S. unemployment rate in August was 3.8%, higher than the expected value of 3.50% and higher than the previous value of 3.50%.
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in August were 187,000, higher than the expected value of 170,000 and the same as the previous value of 187,000.
Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Bernstein, said: This is a market-friendly report, with the labor market easing and economic growth still quite healthy, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see.
The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September has risen to 93%, and the swap market has fully reflected that the expected time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points will be brought forward from June next year to May.
Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments: The market is starting to consider rate cuts and when they might come, which is the next focus for the stock market to rise.
Encrypted ecological news
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed the filing of seven BTC ETFs, with the next review scheduled for October 16-19.
The New York Stock Exchange has applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to allow Hashdex to convert its existing $3 million BTC futures ETF listed on the New York Stock Exchange into a Hashdex spot ETF.
Hong Kong ZA Bank announced that it has become the first settlement bank for Hashkey Exchange, a licensed virtual asset retail platform in Hong Kong, and has begun to provide legal currency withdrawal and deposit services for investors holding ZA Bank accounts.
JPMorgan Chase Bank, submitted a trademark application for "CHASETRAVEL", planning to conduct virtual currency financial transactions, travel intermediary services, etc.
Chen Peiquan, executive director of Victory Securities, said that it is expected that the Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission will soon announce guidelines for securities firms to open retail trading of virtual assets. Depending on the progress, Victory Securities may open retail virtual asset trading in the fourth quarter.
"X" Twitter gets permission to add cryptocurrency payments
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
High quality selling pressure
New and sold on-chain chips
Chip distribution and volume address distribution at each price
New feature engineering for derivatives
(Figure below: high-quality selling pressure)
The overall higher quality selling pressure has slowly declined in the past month.
This leaves a certain amount of time redundancy and space for the market's turning point.
(The following figure shows the newly added and sold on-chain chips)
The number of newly added chips on the chain has generally increased in the past two months.
Market participants slowly increase the chips in their hands over time.
(The following figure shows the distribution of chips and volume addresses at each price)
The percentage of participants actively trading during this time period has dropped significantly.
There are more short-term participants, and the on-chain chip flow has dropped by more than 70%.
It is worth noting that there are whales that have hoarded a large number of chips in the price range of 48,000 to 50,000 US dollars, and they may cash out part of the chips when the price hits this level again in the future.
(Figure below: New feature engineering of derivatives)
Lake blue: Lido
Golden orange: bad news
This is a new feature derived from the latest experiments and research, or a signal based on feature engineering of derivatives.
It can be applied in quantitative trading and medium-term trading with powerful effects.
The following are the simple backtest results:
A shorter holding strategy is adopted, generally holding for about 1-3 hours.
Spot, no leverage, in the current big shock and bear market, only long backtest returns 72%+;
Maximum drawdown: 7%.
Mid-term exploration
Exchange Fund Flow
Purchasing power difference
Net exchange position
(The following figure shows the flow of funds in the exchange)
Red line: The proportion of on-chain transfers in exchange fund flows
Orange area: On-chain transfer volume
Blue area: exchange fund flow
This model is used to examine the capital flow of an exchange. When the capital flow of an exchange is relatively active, it may represent a relatively good circulation situation in the market.
If we look at it from this perspective, BTC's own capital flow is in good condition, with corresponding buyers and sellers exchanging on the exchange.
(Purchasing power difference in the figure below)
However, from the perspective of purchasing power difference, there are currently signs of slight recovery, but the overall changes are small.
At the same time, the overall stablecoin situation has not shown an increase, and may be relatively biased towards stock.
Combined with the "exchange fund flow", the on-site inventory is still relatively active and is currently still inclined to recovery.
In order to observe more closely, the data of net positions of exchanges are added.
(Figure below: Exchange net position)
The net position of an exchange is the relative relationship between the amount of deposits and withdrawals over a certain period of time, as well as the relationship between some buyers and sellers that can be guessed.
The current exchange net position tends to be in a state of weak outflow, but the overall position has not turned from "green" to red.
Perhaps from the perspective of market status switching, the seller's rhythm is in the release stage.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: Risk factor is in the neutral area, moderate risk
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Last week we mentioned that the downward trend in the risk factor would not lead to expectations of price increases. This week, the risk factor has dropped to the neutral zone, the risk of derivatives is moderate, and there is no special expectation for the impact on prices.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume has increased significantly, and the proportion of put options has not changed much compared with last week and is at a medium level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
After a brief price increase, derivatives trading volume quickly fell back to a low level, indicating that many derivatives traders are still on the sidelines.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Options implied volatility has increased and options traders have become more active.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to indifferent
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The change in loss transfer volume has not changed much compared with last week, only the loss transfer volume has slightly decreased. Neither positive sentiment nor panic sentiment is present.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
The number of newly added and active addresses on the chain is currently at a medium-high level, indicating that the chain is active.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a small inflow and the selling pressure is low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
There is a moderate inflow of Bitcoin, and the current inflow has been digested.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
E Taiyi is as usual, outflow and accumulation.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has been completely lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
As with last week, global purchasing power has completely drained into negative territory.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions saw a small outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT exchange net position inflow accumulation.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 25,000; there is a willingness to sell at 30,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 23000, 24000, 24500, and 25000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30500, 31000 and 32000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 24,000 and 25,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30,000 and 31,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 22000, 23000, and 24500;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30500 and 32000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The Federal Reserve expects to end the interest rate hike cycle at the latest within two CPI periods. After the interest rate hike cycle ends, the US bond yield will fall.
Funds will then flow back into risky assets, thereby promoting the rise of risky assets.
Encryption:
On the one hand, the court denied the SEC's reasons for rejecting Grayscale Spot, and on the other hand, top asset management institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity and top hedge funds such as Citadel Investments joined.
The SEC has fewer and fewer options left.
It will become a high probability in the later stage.
On-chain long-term insights:
High-quality selling pressure is slowly decreasing;
The amount of new chips on the chain has been increasing quietly in the past two months;
The liquidity of the on-chain chip structure has dropped by 70%. It is worth noting that there are whales hoarding a large number of chips in the price range of 48,000 to 50,000 US dollars, which may cause pressure in the later stage;
Currently, the main active funds on the chain are short-term funds;
Backtest of new features and signal effects: the retracement-to-profit ratio is 10, which shows good results.
Market setting:
Maintaining the view of low liquidity, the market structure has not changed much, and it may take a slower transition and plateau period.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
BTC has a better trading situation on exchanges
Purchasing power has been slightly restored, but overall it is biased towards inventory
Net position shows the key points of transition between seller and buyer status
Market setting:
There are sufficient buyers and sellers in the market. From this perspective, liquidity is acceptable, but the overall environment is still a stock environment, and we need to pay attention to narrative and trend changes in the medium term.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-to-high level, and the on-chain activity is good.
Market sentiment rating: neutral to cold.
The overall net position of the exchange showed a small inflow and low selling pressure.
Global purchasing power has been completely lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the 25,000 price level, and a willingness to sell at the 30,000 price level.
The probability that the price will not fall below 20,000-22,000 in the short term is 89%; the probability that the price will not rise below 28,000-30,000 in the short term is 63%.
Market setting:
The overall market sentiment is neutral to indifferent. Short-term prices tend to be affected by news or derivatives markets. In addition, the current price is still lower than the cost of short-term holders, and unrealized losses should be paid attention to.
Strategy suggestion: Spot dynamic hedging
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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