In July, market turmoil intensified, with Schrodinger-style positive and negative factors intertwined, and the liquidity dilemma remained unsolved, and the market was caught in a dilemma. In this situation, survival became the primary consideration, and a conservative strategy became a consensus.

For the Mentougou incident, its impact may not be as severe as expected. Although the total number of bitcoins involved was as high as 142,000, only 75,000 were actually paid to creditors, and unlike the short-term selling pressure of the German government, creditors may not immediately cash out, resulting in uncertainty in the actual amount and time of bitcoins flowing into the market, which reduced the immediate impact on the market. In addition, the existence of Bitcoin ETFs and potential bottom-fishing behavior by institutions, such as the recent whales adding more than 4 billion US dollars after the plunge, all provide support signals to the market. Therefore, although short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the Mentougou incident may become a one-time cleanup in the encryption field, clearing obstacles for subsequent markets.

From a macro perspective, with the election approaching, Trump's approval rating is rising, posing a challenge to the Biden administration. In order to avoid the dilution of inflation control results and for votes, the expectation of interest rate cut in September has increased. Powell's remarks also revealed this tendency, injecting a hint of easing expectations into the market. This series of factors may bring new opportunities and focus to the market.

To sum up, although the Mentougou incident has brought volatility to the market, its actual impact is limited, and it is expected to lay a more solid foundation for the long-term development of the crypto market. Macro-level policy changes, especially the expectation of interest rate cuts, may become an important force to promote the market recovery. Therefore, while investors remain cautious, they should also pay attention to these positive signals and prepare for the upcoming market opportunities. #比特币行情 #以太坊 #山寨季何时到来? #美国大选如何影响加密产业? #以太坊ETF批准预期 $BTC $ETH