Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
Today, the price of Bitcoin has risen steadily and once exceeded 63,000 US dollars. ETH has also exceeded 3,300 US dollars. Altcoins have also followed the general rise of the market. In the past 24 hours, short positions have been liquidated to reach 90 million US dollars.
A major negative factor hanging in the market's mind was finally wiped out: on July 13, the balance of the Bitcoin address seized by the German government showed that its sell-off may have ended, and the large-scale sell-off in mid-June has come to an end. It should be noted that the selling pressure brought by these 50,000 BTC caused BTC to fall from a low of $65,000 to around $53,500. The market once spread panic and hit a new low for the year and collapsed the altcoin market.
Trump, who just survived an assassination attempt, has become a global celebrity for his photo of him raising his arms and cheering. After the incident, Trump's election victory rate on the prediction market platform Polymarket has soared to 71%, a recent high, far exceeding the 18% of the current President Biden. Based on his series of statements during this round of elections, if Trump wins the election, it will undoubtedly be a big boon to the cryptocurrency market.
Trump said in a meeting with representatives of Bitcoin miners last month that he loves and understands cryptocurrency and will speak for Bitcoin miners in the White House. He even posted on his social media company Truth Social that Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against central bank digital currency (CBDC). We hope that all remaining Bitcoins are made in the United States (MADE IN THE USA). In addition, Palantir Technologies consultant Jacob Helberg also told Reuters that Trump made it clear that Biden and Gensler's crusade against cryptocurrency will stop within an hour after Trump's second administration takes office.
It is worth mentioning that Trump will also attend the Tennessee Bitcoin 2024 Conference on July 27 and deliver a speech. If the probability of Trump's victory continues to rise, the crypto market may usher in this potentially favorable "price in" rise in advance.
There is no movement in the distribution compensation of Mt.Gox for the time being. After months of market depression due to constant pessimism, the selling force weakened and the Bitcoin spot ETF data performed well. Since July 5, the ETF data began to show net inflows, and even on July 12, the total net inflow reached a staggering $310 million. According to IntoTheBlock data, when the price of Bitcoin retreated to $54,200 on July 5, the Bitcoin whale address increased its holdings by 71,000 Bitcoins, worth about $4.3 billion.
Ethereum spot ETH approval is also imminent. On the macro side, the expectation of interest rate cuts has changed from 1 to 2, and it has been brought forward to September. With a series of favorable factors, how will the market trend in the future? Let's listen to the opinions of the experts.
Collective Shift founder: Bitcoin's "local bottom" has now formed and is heading towards an upward trend
Ben Simpson, founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift, said that a local bottom has now formed for Bitcoin and it is heading for an upward trend. The price of Bitcoin has been hit by a large amount of forced selling, most of which came from the German government's nearly $3 billion sell-off, as well as negative sentiment towards the repayment of about $8.5 billion to Mt.Gox creditors. This week's assassination of former President Trump had a positive impact on his re-election chances, and the former president's pro-cryptocurrency stance boosted positive sentiment for Bitcoin and crypto assets in the process.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio: If Bitcoin's weekly, daily and 4H candlestick charts close above $60,000, there is a high probability that it will directly approach $63,000
Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a top trader on Binance Futures, whose cumulative contract revenue has exceeded $28.65 million, said on his social platform that if Bitcoin's weekly, daily and 4H K-line charts close above $60,000, there is a high possibility that it will directly approach $63,000. On the other hand, if it fails to hold, the upward momentum will stagnate, and this may be the highest point for quite a long time. (Tried to recapture the range and failed)
Trader T: Mentougou will be the next big seller, which may bring $4.62 billion of selling pressure before November
Trader T published a post on the X platform predicting that after a week of strong selling by the German government, Mt.Gox will be the next strong seller. Mt.Gox should repay a total of 14,100 bitcoins, and the repayment ratio should be no less than 80% before November this year. The repayment discount rate is 89%, so Mt.Gox will sell at most 100,392 BTC before November. Given its dispersed ownership, the possibility of large-scale liquidation is low. According to the worst-case scenario, Mt.Gox will sell 80% of its bitcoins, which may bring $4.62 billion in liquidation pressure.
10x Research: A larger sell-off is likely in the coming weeks and months
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in the report that concerns persist due to oversupply and the lack of solid market fundamentals, which poses potential risks to medium-term traders. Last week, Bitcoin appeared to have rebounded from oversold levels ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was expected to fall. However, since this expectation was widely known and Bitcoin had already risen, the price could not be maintained. This downward inflation trend may continue until October, when year-on-year data will be more challenging.
Although the price of Bitcoin experienced a correction of nearly 20% at its lowest point during the sale of $3 billion worth of Bitcoin in Saxony, the U.S., it has withstood this test. However, a larger sell-off is expected in the coming weeks and months, which could further affect the market.
JPMorgan: Cryptocurrency Market Expected to Rebound in August
JPMorgan said in its latest research report that the crypto market is expected to rebound starting in August. Due to the liquidation of creditors of Mt. Gox and Gemini and the sale of cryptocurrencies seized from criminal activities by the German government, the reserves of Bitcoin on major trading platforms have declined in the past month, causing the bank to lower its year-to-date crypto market net flow estimate from $12 billion to $8 billion. The report pointed out that liquidation activities should end this month and the market will recover from August.
Matrixport: Bitcoin ETF inflows hit a one-month high last week, with buying gradually shifting from institutions to retail investors
Matrixport released its latest report saying that the spot Bitcoin ETF ended a week of trading with an inflow of $310 million last Friday, the highest level in more than a month. Previously, ETF fund flows were closely related to inflation data, and last week's CPI data was weaker than expected, and ETF funds may continue to flow in. It is worth noting that institutional buying, which was initially driven by high arbitrage opportunities, has shifted to retail investors who are less sensitive to stop losses. This shift may allow buying activities to last longer, thereby reducing dependence on macroeconomic data.
CryptoQuant founder: The crypto market is expected to be flat in the next 2-3 months, and remain bullish in the long term
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, wrote that Bitcoin miners' capitulation is still ongoing. Historically, this ratio ends when the average daily mining value reaches 40% of the annual average, but now the ratio is 72%. It is expected that the cryptocurrency market will perform flat in the next 2-3 months, maintain long-term bullishness, but avoid excessive risks.
QCP Capital: Maintain medium-term bullish view, crypto market is ready for rebound
QCP Capital released a market analysis showing that the attack on Donald Trump last weekend triggered a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, and the strong upward momentum continued into Monday's Asian session. The entire trend seems to be due to the market's pricing of Trump's victory in the upcoming election (similar to Reagan's performance after the assassination attempt in 1981), which is good for cryptocurrency prices because Trump publicly supports cryptocurrencies. QCP Capital said that the market is ready for a rebound because the German government has exhausted its supply and large hedge funds actively bought call options last week. The attack on Trump is the perfect trigger for the market to be eager to go long. Given the continued large demand for BTC spot ETF inflows and the upcoming launch of ETH spot ETF as a catalyst, QCP Capital maintains a medium-term bullish view.
