Do some popular science
The Kelly Criterion is a money management formula used to determine the optimal proportion of bets that should be made to maximize long-term capital growth.
The Kelly formula is designed to balance risk and reward, avoiding the risk of bankruptcy while achieving optimal growth of your money.
All assumptions of Kelly's formula include:
Independent gambling or investment opportunities
certain probability
Repeat continuously
unlimited funds
Not bankrupt
Stable return on investment
Market liquidity is sufficient
The most important thing is not to go bankrupt
Therefore, the investment ratio calculated by the Carrier formula is more like an upper limit, and each order must be lower than this value.
Add in the frequency of transactions and your own cash flow to evaluate better.
Assume that the monthly income is 1 unit
Trading opportunities that occur once a month
You can probably fight up to 2 units (assuming a 50% win rate
Don’t make estimates assuming your win rate is over 50
It's better to be conservative
