On Saturday, former U.S. President Donald Trump was shot at a rally in Pennsylvania. This incident immediately caused significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket, and the probability of Trump winning the election soared to All time high. This article will explore the impact of this shooting on prediction markets and how it changed market expectations about Trump’s political fate in a short period of time.

Following the shooting at a Pennsylvania rally, traders on cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket are betting that former President Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House have reached an all-time high, with a current probability of 70%. Polifi tokens and cryptocurrencies associated with Trump also rose in price across the board.

According to the New York Times, a Secret Service spokesman confirmed that Republican presidential candidate Trump was injured in the shooting but is currently "safe". In the incident, a suspected gunman was shot dead and another audience member died. After being grazed by a bullet, Trump was quickly escorted off the stage by Secret Service agents, during which he clenched his fists.

At last Saturday's rally, Trump was shot and only slightly injured, but Secret Service agents responded quickly and escorted him away from the podium. During this process, Trump clenched his fists, showing his firmness and indomitable spirit.

Photos and videos of Trump with a bloody face and fists waving were widely circulated on social media, which changed the national focus of the past two weeks on Trump's opponent, current President Joe Biden. After the incident, the price of the contract on Trump's victory on Polymarket rose to 71 cents, reflecting the market's high expectations for his victory in November.

The bets were recorded in a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain and settled in USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the same value as the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the prices of Trump-named “PoliFi” tokens have also surged, with MAGA and TREMP tokens up 34% and 67% in 24 hours, respectively.

Meanwhile, BODEN, a jokey asset named after Biden, is down about 15% in 24 hours. These meme coins have become a de facto election betting market, although unlike prediction markets, they don’t pay holders anything if a candidate wins.

Trump has made clear his support for cryptocurrencies during his campaign and plans to speak at an upcoming Nashville Bitcoin conference. The Republican platform also promises to prevent any crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry by a Biden administration.

Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan, has seen a surge in trading volume as the 2024 US election approaches. Total bets on contracts for the winner of the US presidential election reached $252 million, a record for the company and all cryptocurrency-based prediction markets.

Meanwhile, traditional betting site PredictIt also showed an upward trend in Trump's chances of winning, with its share price rising from 59 cents before the shooting to 66 cents and stabilizing at 65 cents.

It is argued that prediction markets are considered more reliable sentiment and forecasting tools than opinion polls because participants are investing money, as those making the predictions are investing money and therefore have an incentive to conduct thorough research and express an honest opinion. #特朗普 #枪击 #胜选概率 #Polymarket

Conclusion:

The shooting is a serious event in the political sphere, posing a threat not only to the safety of those directly involved, but also to public sentiment and political prediction markets. While prediction markets offer a way to make predictions based on money invested, they also remind us that real-world events can change expectations and probabilities in an instant.

Faced with the unpredictability of political events, we need to go beyond the fluctuations in superficial numbers and deeply understand the information conveyed by the prediction market to help us identify and avoid risks and make more informed investment choices when necessary.