Deep Chao TechFlow news and Cycle Capital Research analysis pointed out that as of July 12, 138,000 BTC were still in Mentougou’s account address. It can be considered that the actual selling pressure in Mentougou has not actually entered the market. The decline on July 5 was a partial realization of the expected decline in Mentougou selling pressure. When the BTC held by Mentougou is distributed to several exchange addresses on a large scale, it may cause a large panic drop, thus forming a plunge pin. When specific individuals sell, due to the dispersion and difficulty in tracking and observing, it may not necessarily cause a significant drop in price.

Mentougou has been involved in a compensation lawsuit since 2014, and currently has about 140,000 bitcoins left to be distributed. According to the compensation plan, creditors can choose to make a lump sum compensation in advance or wait for a longer period of time for compensation. On July 5, 2024, 47,000 tokens were moved from the Mentougou account address, of which 1,545 bitcoins were transferred to Bitbank, and compensation began to be paid. If the compensation is completed within a month, the selling pressure faced by the market will be similar to the German government's bitcoin selling, which may lead to a price drop. If the compensation lasts for 2-3 months, the market may digest the selling through shocks.

In addition, during the period when the German government sold tokens, the ETF had a net inflow of 600 million, with a daily average of 43 million US dollars. The main purchases occurred after July 5, totaling more than 800 million US dollars. During this period, the German government sold a total of 40,000 tokens to the market, about 2.4 billion US dollars. Therefore, the demand for BTC ETF is not enough to provide sufficient support.