Will Bitcoin still fall? 2 Data shows that it is at the "bull-bear key point"

After the release of U.S. CPI data last night, although Bitcoin briefly rose, it still failed to break through $60,000, and was oscillating below $57,000 at the time of writing.

This week, Bitcoin has rebounded from lows near $53,485. But from a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is still in a downward trend since hitting a high of $73,777 in early March and has seen multiple lower stage highs: $72,797, $71,997 and $63,861.

The currency circle foreign media "CoinDesk" pointed out on July 10 that data from the blockchain analysis platform CryptoQuant showed that this week Bitcoin ushered in the critical bull-bear stage of this market cycle. At the same time, several data showed that it may continue to decline or rise.

Data 1: Bitcoin Bull and Bear Cycle Indicator

CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin P&L index is hovering near the 365-day moving average, indicating that a further pullback may be about to begin. The last time the same situation occurred was in May and November 2021, which happened to be the two peaks of the last bull market, and then the market entered a deep correction.

CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator also shows that Bitcoin is currently close to a key level of falling into a bear market.

Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant Bull & Bear Indicator Shows Bitcoin Close to Key Levels Falling into a Bear Market

Data 2: $USDT market value growth has stagnated

CryptoQuant also pointed out that the current market value growth of the U.S. dollar stablecoin Tether ($USDT) is stagnant, which is also the reason why Bitcoin is more difficult to rebound. Historical data shows that when stablecoin liquidity increases, the market usually rebounds.

Bitcoin trend is weak, but giant whales are actively hunting the bottom

Although some data show that the short-term trend of Bitcoin is not optimistic. But CryptoQuant also pointed out that when Bitcoin fell, whales (those with higher funds) have been actively hunting the bottom recently. Data shows that the holdings of Bitcoin whales are growing at a monthly rate of 6.3%, the fastest growth rate since April 2023, and most of these whales are long-term holders.

For long-term holders, bullish factors for Bitcoin include the possible listing of an Ethereum ETF in July, improving macroeconomic conditions, and the U.S. election in November this year.

CryptoQuant analysts said that these whales sold some of their positions when Bitcoin hit all-time highs and made huge profits. And when Bitcoin goes down, they experience some losses and are less willing to sell, which could be an early sign of price bottoming.

However, whether Bitcoin has truly bottomed out depends on the growth of stablecoin liquidity. The above-mentioned change in the market value of $USDT is one of the criteria for judgment.

Source: CryptoQuant
Monthly growth data of Bitcoin whale holdings

[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. All analyzes and opinions in this article are for reference only. Users should refer to more diverse indicators to judge whether to invest, and consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.