In the past week, the market successfully digested the shipments of various whales and successfully hit the pressure level. How will the market perform next? Recently, weak US economic data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts. Fed Chairman Powell released dovish signals at the hearing for two consecutive days, and the US economy has shown signs of fatigue. Ethereum spot ETF is about to land, and Bitcoin has regained its upward momentum this week. After initially bottoming out at $53,000, it continued to rebound, and the market once again called for the slogan of copycat carnival. We believe that if Bitcoin can stand firm at the $60,000 mark, it will rebuild market confidence and is expected to return to the high of $70,000 in the short term.

Macro environment

The US unemployment rate has been adjusted significantly

In June, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States fell by 12,000 to 206,000, higher than the Bloomberg consensus of 190,000, and the cumulative downward revision from April to May was 110,000; hourly wages fell by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3%, in line with expectations; the unemployment rate rose more than expected to 4.1%. Affected by employment in the service sector, private sector employment performance was weak, while government employment rebounded. The non-farm data in June showed that the momentum of US economic growth in the second quarter may have slowed down to near the potential growth rate, and may continue to weaken in the future.

Expectations of a Fed rate cut increase

Timiraos, a mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, believes that the expectation of a rate cut this time is more credible. Powell's reason for cutting interest rates last year seemed untenable when inflation rose in the first quarter and the economy grew steadily. This week, Powell went to Congress to lay the foundation for a rate cut again. If there is no significant fluctuation in CPI data this week, it is highly likely that a rate cut cycle will begin in September. The market has already begun to price in the probability of a rate cut in September.

More than 70% of traders are betting on September as the starting point for a rate cut.

Market status and future trends

This week, the market selling pressure continued to weaken, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) showed an upward trend, driving the market to strengthen. On July 15, the Ethereum spot ETF may be launched, and the short-term market sentiment is supported. Affected by this, the Bitcoin panic index gradually improved.

Bitcoin's recent trend is similar to that of the S&P 500, regaining relative strength. As we said last week, as selling pressure eased, there were important buying opportunities in the short term.

High-quality track

1) Bitcoin L2

Hot Spot: UNISAT New Product Release

UniSat announced a major update to its Swap product on July 7. Most of the engineering for the Swap module has been completed, and the remaining work mainly involves assisting other index compilers to effectively identify and calculate records related to the Swap module. The team has also expanded Bitcoin through FractalBitcoin's methods. The team is very confident about delivering FractalBitcoin in September. On FractalBitcoin, the official will provide a swap product called FractalSwap, which has the same functions as the mainnet swap module to ensure that projects on FractalBitcoin have good liquidity from the beginning. In subsequent iterations, BTC and other mainnet assets can also exist as brc-20 wrapped assets on FractalBitcoin, providing greater flexibility.

Next market trend

The emergence of inscriptions is the first opportunity in history to earn profits by mining Bitcoins for transaction fees instead of relying on fixed block rewards, which is of great significance to maintaining the Bitcoin ecosystem. If the unemployment rate cools down this week, it can be expected that Bitcoin L2 may continue to outperform Bitcoin.

2) Ethereum track

Hot topic: Ethereum spot ETF is about to be approved

An Illinois court has ruled that Ethereum is a commodity, clearing the way for the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF. The market believes that the ETH spot ETF may be approved by the SEC on July 15, and there may be significant gains in ambushing in the Ethereum ecosystem.

Specific currency list:

Uni (Uniswap): Uniswap is a decentralized trading protocol that enables cryptocurrency trading through automated liquidity providers (AMMs) without the need for traditional centralized exchanges.

LDO (Lido): Lido is a decentralized Ethereum 2.0 staking service that allows users to stake ETH to the Ethereum 2.0 Beacon chain and receive stETH tokens pegged 1:1 to ETH.

Ethena (ENA): Ethena is a synthetic dollar and internet native yield platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. It provides stable synthetic USD De through a delta neutral hedging process.

User attention

1) Popular Tokens on Twitter

$IO

IO.NET is an open source, cross-platform network communication library for high-performance asynchronous network programming on the .NET platform. It provides a concise and powerful way to handle network communication, supports protocols such as TCP, UDP, and Unix domain sockets, and is suitable for building various network applications and services.

On July 5, @maid_crypto said on the X platform: “IO insider trading has transferred 2.5 million IO tokens.”

IO.NET official @TheAntiApe clarified: "This FUD is indeed a misunderstanding: 1. The contract is the airdrop contract of IO Season 3, from streamflow. The 2.5 million IO community rewards and the remaining GPU rewards are separate contracts, so this contract shows a total of 2.5 million. 2. The link sent by @maid_crypto filters transactions with more than 10,000 tokens. If you cancel the filter, you can see all small amounts of the contract."

$SD

Stader is a non-custodial smart contract-based staking platform designed to make it easy for you to discover and use staking solutions. Stader is building critical staking middleware infrastructure for multiple PoS networks to serve retail crypto users, exchanges, and custodians. In addition, Stader's mission is to simplify staking and provide the best risk-adjusted returns to delegators. We envision a future in which our staking-based DeFi cornerstone will unleash a whole new world of staking derivatives.

Some major exchanges have already included it in the coin listing process.

2) Popular DApps

Layer3

Layer3 is a protocol that creates a liquid attention market across EVM, Solana, and Cosmos. Since launch, Layer3 has facilitated 96 million interactions and issued L3 tokens. Users who hold L3 can participate in governance and staking. The initial airdrop will take place in the summer of 2024, with a total supply of 300 million, an initial airdrop of 5%, and a community allocation of 51%. The Layer3 Foundation will release the token economics and distribution schedule. Governance allows holders to manage the protocol, and 51% of the supply is dedicated to the community.

Summarize

In the past week, the market successfully digested the whales' shipments and hit the pressure level. Weak US economic data raised expectations for interest rate cuts, and Fed Chairman Powell released dovish signals. Ethereum spot ETF is about to land, and Bitcoin has regained its upward momentum. If it can stand firm at $60,000, it will rebuild market confidence and is expected to return to the high of $70,000 in the short term.

In terms of high-quality tracks, UniSat of Bitcoin L2 released a major update, and the emergence of inscriptions is of great significance to maintaining the Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum spot ETF is about to be approved and may bring major market opportunities.

In terms of user attention, IO.NET and Stader remain popular on Twitter, and Layer3 in DApp is worthy of attention.