Analysis by cryptocurrency research institution CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin is currently at a "long-short turning point." On the one hand, multiple indicators on the chain are releasing "down signals" at the same time; on the other hand, buying orders from "giant whales" are accelerating. This usually means that the price of Bitcoin is about to bottom.
The current trading price of Bitcoin is about US$57,700. Although it has rebounded from last week's low of US$53,600, it is still in a "technical downward trend" since hitting a historical high of US$73,800 in March, and has continuously traded at US$71,300 and US$63,900. Forming a "lower high".
Negative indicators have emerged one after another
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s “Profit and Loss Index” is currently hovering near its 365-day moving average, which usually indicates that a “major correction” or “the beginning of a bear market” may be coming, and the index’s previous “downward crossover ( "Death Cross)" in May and November 2021 foreshadowed the subsequent deep retracement.
In addition, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin "Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator" is also approaching the key level that indicates "falling into a bear market." Analysts pointed out: "If the price falls further, Bitcoin may turn into a bear market."
At the same time, the stagnant market capitalization growth of Tether (USDT) also indicates that Bitcoin may not be able to form a strong rebound, because historical gains are almost in sync with the increase in stablecoin liquidity.
The CryptoQuant report noted that as stablecoin liquidity growth has not yet fully recovered, it may take some time for Bitcoin to bottom out and restart its upward trend.
Multiple bullish factors intertwined
Although many indicators have released danger signals, Bitcoin is still supported by many favorable factors, and there are still opportunities to turn danger into safety.
According to CryptoQuant, just as Bitcoin is falling sharply, "big whales" are also frantically increasing their purchases. The speed is the first time since April 2023. In the past month alone, the holdings of large players have exceeded An increase of 6.3%.
CryptoQuant analysts pointed out that when Bitcoin exceeded $70,000 in early June, long-term holders made huge profits but later also suffered some losses. Even so, their willingness to sell was still not high, adding: "This may It’s an early sign that Bitcoin is hitting bottom.”
On the other hand, the German authorities' large-scale Bitcoin sell-off seems to have come to an end. The police seized nearly 50,000 Bitcoins from the pirated film and television paradise "movie2k.to" in January this year, and began liquidating assets last month. There are only 15,000 Bitcoins left for sale.
In addition, other bullish factors include the upcoming listing of the Ethereum spot ETF and the fact that the U.S. stock index, which has historically been highly correlated with Bitcoin, has repeatedly reached new highs. This shows that despite signs of weakness in the short term, Bitcoin's market this year is still going strong. Look pretty.
〈Bitcoin is at the "long-short boundary", can the market outlook "turn the risk into safety"? 〉This article was first published in "Block Guest".
