Bitcoin has rebounded recently, but two analysts are not optimistic about it
Bitcoin has recently rebounded from a low near $53,400. In the past 24 hours, it has risen to nearly $60,000. It is now back below $58,000, with an intraday increase of 0.13%.
However, two analytical institutions are not optimistic about the current trend of Bitcoin.
Markus Thielen, founder and analyst of 10x Research, recently wrote that Bitcoin’s current rebound may be short-lived:
“From a technical analysis perspective, the $55,000 to $56,000 range is forming short-term support, but as Bitcoin’s medium-term structure is damaged, we expect only a short-term technical bullish and rebound scenario at this time.”
Thielen added that Bitcoin could rebound to around $60,000 before falling back to the lows of $50,000, creating a more complex trading environment.
K33 Research senior analyst Vetle Lunde also said that judging from historical trends, Bitcoin’s return rate in the third quarter was low. In addition, since the German government is selling seized Bitcoins, coupled with Mt. Gox’s repayment in July, this will put pressure on Bitcoin prices.
K33 Research estimates that the German government and Mt. Gox creditors may sell a total of 75,000 to 118,000 Bitcoins this summer, worth approximately $4.3 billion to $6.8 billion.
Lunde added that these selling pressures are expected to weigh on Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months, which could continue into October.
Image source: K33 Research
K33 Research estimates selling pressure from German government, Mt.Gox
Analyst: Bitcoin needs to return to 200-day moving average
Keith Alan, co-founder of quantitative trading tool Material Indicators, is also cautious. He posted on July 9 that Bitcoin currently lacks the momentum needed to return to the 200-day moving average (currently around $58,186), and that the market urgently needs a catalyst or a large amount of buying liquidity to regain the 200-day moving average.
Alan also pointed out that Bitcoin’s latest trend prediction signal shows that it will not fall below recent lows in the short term, but a sudden fall back to $54,300 will invalidate the signal. The market has seen some moderate buying volume, but a catalyst is still needed to push Bitcoin prices back towards important moving averages.
Judging from yesterday's trend, although Bitcoin once broke through the 200-day moving average, it soon fell back below the moving average. Tonight the U.S. government will release June CPI data. If the data is positive, will it allow Bitcoin to break through the 200-day moving average again? It deserves more attention from investors.
Image source: Keith Alan
Bitcoin daily chart trend
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. All opinions and analyzes in this article are for reference only. Users should refer to more diverse indicators to judge whether to invest, and consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
