The first rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to be in September!

1. Economic rhythm considerations: The monthly operating cycle of the US economy means that the end of July is not an ideal time to cut interest rates to avoid unnecessary disturbances to the market.

2. Economic resilience analysis: The US economy has shown strong resilience, which has delayed the urgency of rate cuts to a certain extent, but has not changed the market's expectations for future monetary policy adjustments.

3. Adjustment of interest rate cut timing: The Federal Reserve will postpone the first rate cut from July to September, which is not expected to cause additional losses to the US economy. Therefore, the bottom of the decline in US stocks is expected to remain around 36,580 points.

4. Economic cycle node: Mid-to-late August, as a complete economic cycle node before the September rate cut, will become another important starting point for US economic activities.

5. US Treasury market dynamics: During this period, the increase in US Treasury supply may push up US Treasury yields, bringing them close to the high point of 2023 again, increasing market uncertainty.

6. Geopolitical risks: With the rise in U.S. bond interest rates, the United States may adopt more aggressive international strategies, including creating tensions in the South China Sea and other regions, but these actions are not expected to have a major impact on overall stability.

7. Forecast of the international situation: After the Olympics, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may usher in a short-term climax, while the tension in the Middle East is more likely to be concentrated in July, and the peak of oil prices is expected to reach US$86.6 (US oil) in mid-to-early July.

8. Expected stock market performance: The A-share market is expected to hit the bottom at the end of August, while the U.S. stock market may bottom out in mid-August.

9. Market risk warning: In early September, the U.S. market may face some unfavorable factors, leading to the risk of a second bottoming out of the U.S. stock market.

10. Unemployment rate and interest rate cut decision: In the short term, the key threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates is that the unemployment rate exceeds 4.3% and reaches 4.4%. Given that the unemployment rate was 4.1% in June, and combined with the trend analysis of the economy and unemployment rate, it is expected that the unemployment rate will reach this level in September, triggering the Fed's first interest rate cut.

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#美联储何时降息？