From the perspective of the current macroeconomics, the high unemployment rate in the United States has become the focus of market attention, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been sharply pushed up, just like an arrow on a string that has to be fired.
Yesterday, the authoritative testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, like a market weather vane, triggered heated discussions among many financial institutions on Wall Street. Most forecasts believe that the door to the Fed's interest rate cut may be opened from September. Although the probability of this forecast is cautiously estimated at about 70%, it is still enough to arouse the sensitive nerves of the market.
The current market situation is like an undercurrent under the still water, and any subtle news ripples can stir up waves. At 22:00 tonight, Powell will take the stage again to deliver an important speech at the semi-annual monetary policy meeting. The subtle changes in his words will undoubtedly become the key to the market's interpretation of the future monetary policy trend.
And tomorrow, Thursday, the release of the June CPI data is even more eye-catching. This key economic indicator will not only directly reflect the changes in the US inflation level, but will also have a profound impact on the market's expectations of the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts. In this dual game of data and expectations, market participants are holding their breath and preparing for the possible market storm.