According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of job vacancies fell to 8.83 million, lower than expected and reaching a new low in the past seven months. This shows that the U.S. job market is facing a weakening situation. At the same time, data released by the Economic Advisory Committee showed that the consumer confidence index also fell from the previous value of 114 to 106.1, which was lower than market expectations. In particular, the confidence index for assessing the current situation and the expectation index reflecting the outlook for the next six months have both declined.

The data suggested the Fed's tightening policy measures may be paying off and eased pressure for further rate hikes. According to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of a quarter-point rate hike at the September meeting fell sharply to 9.5%, while the probability of no change soared to 90.5%. #美联储是否加息？

Against this backdrop, yesterday's U.S. stock market rebounded across the board, albeit at a narrower pace. However, the cryptocurrency market, such as Bitcoin, remains a hot topic of concern. The controversy between traditional fund management companies and the regulator SEC over Bitcoin spot ETFs may gradually heat up, marking a new era for the cryptocurrency market. Although I personally believe that Bitcoin spot ETFs may not be rejected, they may be postponed. It should be noted that September 1 to 4 is a sensitive period in the near future, and market volatility may increase.

As for the trend of $BTC , it is currently in the B wave stage of the second wave of correction, and the high point is expected to be no more than $28,500. If there is a trend reversal, it must stand above $29,200, but this possibility is small. I personally recommend shorting in batches between $27,500 and $28,500, and waiting for the C wave to pull back. In the short term, it may fluctuate around $27,000, and it may be safer to continue the short strategy.

What can we expect from the future of Bitcoin?

As we head into the second half of 2023, the topic of conversation continues to be Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has had a rollercoaster decade, with rapid gains and stomach-churning falls. Yet, it remains the largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Below I will share some of my thoughts. Here are five predictions for the future of Bitcoin: #BTC

First, as institutional investors pour in, Bitcoin will continue to attract more funds. As a reliable means of storing value, Bitcoin's limited supply and growing demand will make it a favorite of institutional investors. Mutual funds, hedge funds and even pension funds will all get involved in the cryptocurrency market, which will inject a steady stream of funds into the development of Bitcoin.

Secondly, regulatory clarity will have a positive impact on Bitcoin. Strengthened regulation can be seen as a form of legitimization, which can also protect the rights and interests of investors and exclude bad actors from the market, providing greater security and credibility. At the same time, overly harsh regulation may limit innovation and adoption, so the balance of regulation is very important.

Third, technological progress will drive the development of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin's technology is relatively rudimentary, efforts are underway to improve its scalability, reduce transaction fees, and speed up confirmation times. For example, innovations such as the Lightning Network have shown promise. As technology continues to advance, Bitcoin will become more user-friendly and more commercially viable for everyday transactions.

Fourth, mainstream adoption of Bitcoin will continue to expand. As more people realize the real value of Bitcoin, its market value may increase exponentially. As the younger generation becomes more familiar with digital assets, they are more likely to choose Bitcoin as an investment and payment method. At the same time, more and more companies are beginning to accept Bitcoin payments, a trend that will further promote the popularity of Bitcoin.

Finally, geopolitical factors will also have an impact on Bitcoin. As a decentralized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin offers the advantages of financial freedom and transparency. In times of global economic instability or declining trust in the traditional financial system, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin becomes particularly attractive. Unlike fiat currencies, which are managed by a single institution, Bitcoin runs on a distributed network, providing a degree of financial freedom. In times of economic volatility or uncertainty, Bitcoin has the potential to serve as a financial safe haven, similar to gold in history.

In summary, we are full of expectations for the future of Bitcoin. With the promotion of institutional investment, regulatory clarity, technological progress, wider mainstream adoption and geopolitical factors, Bitcoin is expected to continue to develop in the future and become an important digital asset and means of value storage. However, it should be noted that the Bitcoin market is still volatile, and investors should treat it rationally and make decisions based on their own risk tolerance.