The market can be divided into four stages:
General bear season: from the peak of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market, this stage is characterized by a general decline in the entire market.
Wash season: from the bottom of the bear market to the start of the next bull market (this round starts on October 12, 2023), the characteristics are mainly shocks and slight increases.
BTC/ETH season: from the starting point of the bull market to the lowest point of the proportion of altcoins, the characteristics are general increases, but BTC and ETH have greater increases, and the market value share of altcoins has dropped to the lowest.
Altcoin season: from the low point of the proportion of altcoins to the peak of the bull market, the characteristics are general increases, altcoins have the largest increase, ETH has a strong rise, and BTC has a relatively small increase of only 100%.
The above stages are all estimated by market value, so there may be a situation where the market value of altcoins increases but the price does not.
Each stage lasts for 9-15 months. At present, this division method is more in line with the market trend.
The market is currently in the middle of the "BTC/ETH season". This round of wash season is shorter, so it is estimated that the BTC/ETH season will be longer.
The last round of "BTC/ETH season" ended 8 months after the halving, and now it is 3 months after the halving, a difference of about 5 months.
From the perspective of the increase target, the total increase in this season in the last round was 480%, while the increase in this round of BTC/ETH season was only 100%, which is far from expectations.
At this stage, ETH is one of the best positions, because ETH has performed very well in both the "BTC/ETH season" and the "altcoin season".
