Avalanche [AVAX] has been on a bearish trajectory and in a downtrend soon after hitting a nearly two-year high in March 2024. The sharp bearish rally in the altcoin has dragged AVAX down to some key levels, one of which is the 200-day EMA level on the daily chart.
As of this writing, AVAX is trading at $25.6, down nearly 3% over the past day. From press time levels, the token could now see highly volatile movements, especially as it moves in relatively low liquidity areas.
AVAX falls below 200-day moving average
After a fairly long uptrend during the rally from October 2023 to March 2024, AVAX grew by nearly 585% and retested the resistance at $61. During this rally on March 18, it hit a two-year high of $64.5.
However, the altcoin has seen a string of red candles on the chart and keeps losing important support levels. One major level is the Point of Control (POC, red) line of the visible range of the volume distribution.
Since it represents the most liquid level over the past year, we can see how AVAX entered a consolidation phase in the $31 to $40 range for nearly two months (April to June).
However, sellers continue to apply more pressure as the currency continues to form a classic falling wedge pattern on the daily chart.
Finally, the $24.4 level has reignited the bullish rally in the past few weeks. As a result, AVAX has seen a bullish breakout, but the 20 EMA continues to pose a short-term recovery hurdle.
With the EMAs undergoing a death cross (20 and 50 EMAs crossing below the 200 EMA), sellers will try to suppress any immediate buying rally.
A break below the $24 support could set the stage for sellers to continue the bearish trend. If the altcoin fails to hold the immediate support, they might try to test the $17-19 support.
It is worth noting that any possible upside above the 20/50 EMA might help the buyers to recover some strength but the 200 EMA might act as a stiff resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to show sellers’ advantage as it struggles to break above the 50 level. Likewise, the MACD has reaffirmed the bearish advantage as it is yet to find a close above its equilibrium point.
Bull and Bear Markets
AVAX is still showing net buying activity from large players, according to IntoTheBlock. Its seven-day longs (147) outnumber shorts (142), according to the platform.
The platform categorizes anyone who buys more than 1% of total trading volume as “long,” and anyone who sells more than 1% as “short.”
This suggests some positive sentiment from large buyers – which could help altcoins regain a bullish edge.
