Fed Chairman Powell delivered a semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the U.S. Senate, accepting questions on monetary policy and bank supervision. There are two key points.

First, the U.S. CPI. From the perspective of CPI, the U.S. CPI in May fell to 3.3%, which is still some distance from 2%. The situation of the June CPI to be announced on Thursday this week will be very important. Now the market generally expects that the U.S. CPI will continue to fall. This is more favorable for interest rate cuts.

Second, the employment data. From the just-released U.S. employment data, although it exceeded expectations, the data for April and May were revised down, so now the market generally feels that this employment data is relatively watery. And from the salary data, we can also see that the U.S. job market has slowed down. The unemployment rate has also risen to 4.1%.

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Powell's remarks basically lowered the unemployment rate. I don't know if he is under too much pressure. Now he starts to say that inflation has no direct relationship with the labor market. At the interest rate meeting half a month ago, he still said that wage growth was the main cause of inflation, but it still needs to be noted that the unemployment rate is still the most critical data now.

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