➡️Today is Tuesday of a rather important and significant week of a fateful month! We closely monitor fundamental analysis because... in my opinion, all the events of the last month are developing exclusively around him (I could be mistaken).

➡️The key is inflation (data on it), the prospects for a rate cut from the Fed, as well as Powell’s rhetoric and words! Here we get an update. Initially, I allocated only Thursday of this week i.e. 07/11/2024 at 15:30 Moscow time, as well as Wednesday 07/31/2024 (See screenshot). Now the current Tuesday 17:00 Moscow time 07/9/20224 and tomorrow's Wednesday 07/10/2024 are also highlighted, specifically 17:00 Moscow time (see screenshot), i.e. Fed Chairman Powell will speak!

Usually such gatherings not timed to the situation AFTER the Fed rate do not give volatility to the market in 90% of cases, what will happen now? Grandfather already knows, like all competent market participants, who is really engaged in trading and investing, and does not pretend that inflation has been decreasing over the past month as well as the % of the quarter as a whole (which Powell spoke about as an important event before deciding to cut the Fed rate ), therefore this is already a theoretical basis for reducing the Fed rate for example in the fall +/-, although there is still a possibility of this event on July 31, but I would not bet on it or count on it.

In this regard, we can make an assumption:

1️⃣On Tuesday/Wednesday, contrary to established canons, it will give a hint of a decrease in inflation (which everyone already sees, and they have already seen it!) and, as a result, at least 1 reduction in the Fed rate this year, which will activate the recovery of the market, cryptocurrencies in particular - this is a very utopian story that fits into Wyckoff’s theory, and specifically phase C with a transition to D (see screenshot), thus the market recovery will begin on Wednesday-Thursday.

2️⃣On Tuesday/Wednesday he will give a hint of a decrease in inflation, which will activate market growth after the fact, and on Thursday, on the (positive) news, the market will play on the contradiction, i.e. there will be “negative on positive”, however, the price will remain in a “tailspin” for some time with the maximum possible negative - this is an update of EMA50 on the weekly TF (Currently it is 51600 +/-) and the maximum long in the area of ​​61800 +/- or or more often, a sidebar in the style of compressing a spring, following the example of a drawing from the Wyckoff logic of the end of phase C (see screenshot), but with a mandatory increase or a smoothly growing sidebar +/- according to data from the Fed, and specifically Powell’s words after the announcement of the rate on July 31 .

I wish I was wrong, but I'll bet on this scenario.

3️⃣Powell will not give any volatility on Tuesday/Wednesday or will show only a slight manifestation of it, on Thursday we will get “positive-on-positive” based on inflation data, we will grow, I admit, also on Friday, and by Sunday and Monday of the next week we will approach corrections and the market will again become cautious with jerks both long and short with the maximum possible negative - this is an update of EMA50 on the weekly TF (Currently it is 51600 +/-) and a maximum long in the area of ​​61800 +/- and a growth limit of 63600 +/- or what more often, sideways in the style of compressing a spring, following the example of the drawing from the Wyckoff logic of the end of phase C (see screenshot), but with a mandatory increase or smoothly growing sideways +/- according to data from the Fed, and specifically Powell’s words after the announcement of the rate on July 31.

⚠️Important areas:

✅Support: 56800, 56500, 54700, 53875, 53100, 51250, 50800, 49150, 45700, 45000, 43200, 42750

❌Resistance: 57700, 58200, 59650, 60900, 61500, 62150, 63600, 64400, 65200, 66400, 68100, 69600, 70400

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