Powell is expected to make a dovish speech tonight

Hello everyone, today is July 9th, and Powell will speak tonight. At present, my personal opinion is that the speech tonight will be dovish.

The reason is the relationship between the non-agricultural data and the employment rate in those days. The employment rate released two days ago has reached 4.1%. The relationship between the employment rate and the interest rate cut is very large.

So what is the relationship between the employment rate and the interest rate cut? Let me tell you about it today.

The employment rate reflects the current economic situation in the United States. If the employment rate is greater than 4.3%, it means that the economy is in recession. The United States will take a series of economic measures to stimulate economic development. The current data has reached 4.1%, so Powell’s speech tonight will make a statement on the economic policy in the second half of the year. There is a high probability that interest rate cuts will be mentioned. If interest rate cuts are mentioned, it will have a significant positive impact on the market.

The current data are slowly improving, including the CPI data released on Thursday, which will be lower than the expected value of last month. There will not be too many reasons to postpone interest rate cuts or even interest rate hikes.

So the possibility of a dovish tone tonight is very high.