The net inflow of BTC spot ETF continues to be in a state of small downturn. In the small-level bearish trend in the past month, when the ETF has a net inflow, the price tends to temporarily stop falling and fluctuate, and when the ETF has a small net outflow or a non-trading day, the price will fall;

This shows that the supply in the entire market is currently in a dominant position and is still waiting for the situation to turn around;

From the daily line, the market has not actually seen extreme volume and plunge, and is still in a state of downward and negative decline. This trend will cause the demand side to constantly look for potential bottoms and be trapped, thus becoming the supplier after the next decline;

In other words, the more people are buying the bottom at the moment, the more likely the price will go out of the extreme plunge, until a panic sell-off completely consumes all the supply in the market;

So back to the above-mentioned issue of "waiting for the situation to turn around", if you want the price to bottom out completely, there are only two ways:

1. Sufficient time for shock and multiple tests of support. Each test releases supply and absorbs new demand during the price correction process, completes low-level turnover, and uses time to exchange space to form a bottom;

2. A more extreme large-volume accelerated decline occurs, releasing a large amount of supply in a short period of time, and generating emotional panic, releasing the supply trapped above the disk at one time, which can make the subsequent rise much easier, which is equivalent to using space to exchange time. The price can bottom out in a short period of time and form a huge turnover near the lowest level;

As long as there is a large amount of turnover at a low level, the floating supply on the disk will be greatly reduced. At that time, only a small demand will be needed to enter the market, and the shrinking rise in the right half of the bull market in 2021 can be achieved, and even a new high can be broken;

If the market chooses path one, the next step is nothing more than a range shock of more than one month. I think the probability is high, but it will compress the space for subsequent price increases.

If you choose path 2, although it is very scary in the short term, it is better to suffer a short pain than a long pain. This can release more floating supply and greatly increase the room for future rebounds;

What do you think about how the price will bottom out next?

$BTC #德国政府转移比特币