This week's major events:
Powell's speech on Tuesday; June CPI on Thursday; US bank earnings on Friday (a new round of earnings season begins)
The market is much bleak at present. After the decline, it plummeted. The insertion point broke through the channel. BTC still maintains the original view. If the channel does not break, there is still a bull flag expectation. It is acceptable to insert the needle deeper, such as touching the lower platform and the 0.618 position since the rise in January-52000. Just quickly recover it.
If the daily level breaks the channel, there is a possibility of going to the M top. According to the one-to-one measurement position, it may fall to 44800, which is also the 0.618 position since the rise in October last year.
I personally think this possibility is a bit low. This kind of decline will not only kill retail investors, but also almost kill miners. After all, at the current price, there are only 5 mining machine models that can maintain profitability.
Although it is difficult in the short term, the long term is still optimistic. In the near term, there will still be ETH ETFs launched this year, the US election, and the Fed's interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. In the long term, we are in the rising period of this liquidity cycle. It is expected that the next peak will appear in 2025. The bull market is still growing!
At present, the trend on Tuesday is still more optimistic than last week. The selling pressure in the Asian session did not appear, and there was a significant rebound in the afternoon. I hope that the bullish sentiment will continue. Finally, it is emphasized that if the price cannot break through and stand above the daily resistance, there is still a high possibility of a shock decline again.
