Today is July 8th, BTC fell below $55,000 again, with the highest drop of 4.82% in 24 hours. 166 million long orders were liquidated in 24 hours, and 113 million short orders were liquidated.
Since July, the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a continuous slump. Although the market has experienced a general rise for nearly three months in the first half of the year, many people still have not made any money. What changes will there be in the market in the second half of the year? Can the price of BTC break through 100,000?
Judging from the trading data, although the price of Bitcoin fell by 7% in June, the spot Bitcoin ETF received a net inflow of US$790 million, which was the largest month of capital inflow since the ETF was approved in January. The trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETF in May was US$1.2 billion, accounting for 14% of the global spot trading volume. These phenomena directly reflect the strong market demand for spot Bitcoin ETF.
A recent report from the Grayscale Research team also pointed out that despite a lot of selling pressure in June, including the liquidation of the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate, the liquidation of the German government, the sale of the US government, and the reduction of Bitcoin miners, the spot Ethereum exchange-traded product (ETP) will begin trading in the third quarter of 2024. If there is no major change in the macroeconomic outlook, the valuation of the cryptocurrency market will recover in the coming months.
Judging from historical data, since 2018, the volatility period after the Bitcoin plunge will not exceed three months before it rises. The current BTC has fluctuated from 72,000 points to the current 52,000 points for more than three months, and the correction has exceeded 30%. In history, the retracement of every deep wash-out was approximately between 30% and 40%.
Judging from the time and amount of on-exchange option delivery, July 26 and September 27 saw relatively large delivery amounts, both around US$2.6 billion. The biggest pain point on July 26 was $65,000, and the biggest pain point on September 27 was $55,000. If we replicate the wave before last year's market explosion and clean up leveraged contracts, considering the leverage multiple, the range of $50,000-52,000 may be the bottom.
I think it is expected that the price of Bitcoin will fluctuate in the following range in the second half of 2024-2025: Due to the halving event and the possible easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in November, the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach a new annual high of US$80,000 to US$100,000 by the end of the year. In 2025, with further easing of the external environment (the policies of the new US president), Bitcoin could reach US$120,000 to US$150,000.