The market has been volatile in recent months, and many people may be suffering. However, the main rising phase of the bull market has not really arrived yet, so there is no need to be too anxious. How have the returns of different tracks performed since the beginning of the year? As of June 2024, the best performing cryptocurrency tracks in the first half of the year include Meme coin, RWA and AI. Among them, the Meme sector performed best in the first half of 2024, with an average return rate of up to 2405.1%
Looking back at this turbulent market-cleaning process, its complex and ever-changing situation is impressive. The driving factors of the market in the first half mainly include Bitcoin ETF, halving and industry narrative (inscription). These three key factors are intertwined and synergistic, jointly shaping the unique market situation of Bitcoin, which stands out and absorbs blood alone in the market.
Next, let’s look forward to the next wave of market (predicted according to the staged rhythm). The driving factors of the market in the second half will change, among which Ethereum ETF (definitely passed), SOL ETF (with a certain probability of passing), interest rate cuts and industry narratives (Ethereum, SOL ecological narratives) will become new key forces.
1. Ethereum ETF (definitely passed)
The Ethereum spot ETF may be listed later next week or the week of July 15. Eric Balchunas, another Bloomberg analyst, postponed his original prediction of July 2 to after July 8. Reuters also cited internal sources as saying that the SEC may approve the Ethereum spot ETF as early as this week.
If approved, Ethereum’s target will be $7,500, which is similar to the Fibonacci extension that appeared in 2021, meaning Ethereum will see a strong rebound “soon”!
2. SOL ETF (with a certain probability of passing)
The biggest driving force behind this round of bull market comes from the United States, and it also has a lot to do with FTX, which is the biggest beneficiary and partner behind SOL. The key to the ETF application lies in the SEC regulatory agency. With the support of Wall Street capital, SOL's chances of success are obviously greater than ETH.
3. Rate cuts and industry narratives
As we all know, rising unemployment rates are often seen as a sign of economic slowdown, indicating a weakening of labor market demand, which provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to consider adopting a more relaxed monetary policy. The U.S. inflation rate has fallen, and inflationary pressure has gradually eased. This has further strengthened the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve may adjust its interest rate policy. The decline in the inflation rate means that the pressure of price increases has eased, creating conditions for the central bank to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate economic activities.
The market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve may announce a rate cut decision at its September interest rate meeting, thus officially kicking off a new round of rate cuts.
Many people have now lost confidence and trust in altcoins. This is exactly what the main players want to achieve. As the second half begins, the protagonists on the stage will be Ethereum, SOL and altcoins. Driven by the major positive factors I mentioned earlier, altcoins will undoubtedly benefit the most.
Next, let’s focus on sectors with a hundredfold potential: Restaking is a concept first proposed by EigenLayer, as the leader of the restaking protocol in the Ethereum ecosystem. On January 10, EigenLayer announced that it would add three new LST assets and reopen the existing upper limit of 200,000 ETH per LST asset for restaking on January 29 (if you hold ETH, please keep this time in mind).
ETHFI：
Ether.Fi is a decentralized, non-custodial staking protocol. Ether.Fi allows participants to retain control of their keys while proxy staking. Deposits to Ether.Fi are automatically re-collateralized with Eigenlayer. Eigenlayer leverages staked ETH to support external systems (e.g. rollups, oracles), building an economic security layer that increases returns for ETH stakers in the process.
The staker generates and holds the ETH key for his/her stake. (More than 2 ETHs need to be staked)
Renzo: The current locked amount is 1.7 billion US dollars, ranking second in the re-staking market. Renzo supports multi-chain re-staking such as Ethereum, Arbitrum, Blast, and Binance Smart Chain (BSC). In January this year, Renzo announced the completion of a $3 million financing, and the next month Binance Labs also announced its participation in the investment.
Puffer: The current locked amount is 1.3 billion US dollars, ranking third in the re-staking market. Like Renzo, Puffer has also received support from Binance Labs. Unlike other re-staking projects, users who participate in Puffer re-staking and obtain the native liquidity staking token (nLRT) pufETH can obtain traditional PoS verification rewards and re-staking rewards at the same time, while other projects generally provide point rewards related to their native tokens.
