Written by: Shang2046

The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Market Week

BTC adjusted more sharply last week, falling 10.87% and fluctuating 16.44%, breaking through the new high consolidation range with large volume. The lowest point was $53,400, which was nearly 28% lower than the highest point. Doubts about whether the bull market is still there have further intensified.

We tend to believe that we are still in a bull market structure, but before the US interest rate cut is clear, market liquidity faces unprecedented challenges, coupled with the "debt repayment" factor of the rapid rise in March this year, there will be a relatively long downward adjustment. Overall, this will make time and space for the bull market in the macro rhythm of the big interest rate cut next year.

Federal Reserve and economic data

Last week, the unemployment data released by the United States was higher than expected. UBS still believes that a rate cut in September is a high probability event, and a soft landing of the US economy may have become a reality. This Thursday, the US June CPI will be released. If it continues to be lower than expected, it will continue to increase the possibility of a rate cut in September.

Funding

All signs show that Asian funds dominated this round of short-selling. They took full advantage of the market news that the German government and Mt.Gox disposed of a total of 190,000 BTC, chose to launch an offensive on Thursday when the US market was closed for the Independence Day, and superimposed the normal window period of the weekend.

First, although Chicago CME occupies the top position in the contract market with a BTC contract holding of $7 billion, Binance’s daily contract trading volume is currently 3 times that of CME. Together with the top-ranked Bybit, Bitget and OKX, Asian contract exchanges have recorded a total trading volume 6 times that of CME.

Second, in terms of the inflow of US dollar stablecoins, the US compliant stablecoin USDC reversed its decline in more than a year, with a total inflow of 1.378 billion US dollars. However, USDT, which has always played a major role in net inflows and is more accustomed to by Asian investors, had a net outflow of 586 million US dollars. This abnormal phenomenon has never happened in the past year.

Driven by the strong inflow of USDC, stablecoins finally received a net inflow of US$570 million last week, sharply reversing the net outflow of US$600 million in the previous week.

Third, U.S. spot ETFs achieved net inflows on three of the five trading days throughout the week. On Friday, the second day of the big drop, they saw a net inflow of $143 million on a single day, bringing the total inflow for the week to $237 million.

On the exchanges side, stablecoins added $900 million.

Chip Supply

Short-term investors sold 6,000 BTC at a loss of $520 million on July 5, and the pressure has reached the level of the last wash-out period from August to September last year.

Long-term investors sold a total of 1,000 coins last week, while miners' liquidation continued, with inventory reduced by 2,000 coins. At the same time, the exchange added more than 6,000 BTC to the pile, totaling 2.975 million coins, indicating that there is still great upward pressure on the market in the short term.

BTC on-chain data

BTC on-chain data continued to be sluggish, with new addresses and active addresses rebounding, but the number of transfers continued to decline. Due to the sell-off, the transfer scale increased significantly.

Ecological analysis

Although the crypto market has experienced a sharp correction with the trend of BTC, the infrastructure ecosystem outside of BTC has shown a good rebound trend: ETH's new addresses, active addresses and transfers are in a rebound state, and ETH's active addresses have shown an upward trend on the 30-day moving average. Solana's new addresses hit a new record high on July 3, and the 30-day moving average continued to maintain a high-speed upward trend. In addition, this week, Solana DEX's trading volume once again exceeded Ethereum, becoming the public chain with the largest DEX trading volume on the chain.

EMC BTC Cycle indicator

Like last week, the EMC BTC Cycle Bullish Indicator is 0.125 and the market is still in a bullish hibernation period.

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