The cryptocurrency market has been falling for three consecutive months. This wave is a bit like that in 2021. After the halving, there was a periodic small-cycle correction to clean up the market, and then it ushered in a new upward trend in October and started a bull market.
Just when the market was rushing upwards, it failed to break through the previous high of 73,000 yuan and began to fall back in late May and early June. Over the past two months, it has retreated 25% from its high.
As for the market, never wishfully think that something is impossible, otherwise you will be beaten into submission, and even the big pie will be cut in half. Therefore, it is normal for the copycat to drop directly to zero. After falling to zero, it can rise 10 times or a hundred times. The market always goes on in such a cycle.
Only by being mentally prepared for the worst outcome can you be able to wait until the rain stops and the sky clears.
Personally, I always believe that the big bull market is still to come, and the time for a correction and clean-up may come in the next few months. If you miss this opportunity, the US election is over, and the US begins to accelerate interest rate cuts, then you may really have no chance.
Keeping a position and then selling it can withstand the return to zero. Now, while the market is falling and correcting, don't just feel bad. You can do a good job of strategic planning and how to exit better. Also, take a good rest and accumulate strength to impact the next wave of market!
This week's big events:
Powell's speech on Tuesday; June CPI on Thursday; US bank earnings on Friday (a new round of earnings season begins)
The market is much bleak at the moment. After a downward trend, there was a sharp drop. The channels were broken through at the insertion point. BTC still maintains the original view. As long as the channel is not broken, there is still a bull flag expectation and it is acceptable to insert the pin deeper, such as touching the lower platform and the 0.618 position since the rise in January - 52000. As long as it is quickly recovered, it will be fine.
If the daily level breaks the channel, there is a possibility of an M-top. According to the one-to-one measurement, it may fall to 44,800, which is also the 0.618 position since the rise in October last year.
I personally think this possibility is a bit low. This kind of decline will not only kill retail investors, but also almost kill all miners. After all, at the current price, there are only 5 mining machine models that can maintain profitability.
Although it is difficult in the short term, the long term outlook is still positive. In the near term, there will still be the launch of the ETH ETF this year, the US election, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. In the long term, we are in the rising phase of this liquidity cycle, and the next peak is expected to occur in 2025. There is still a lot of room for growth!
The current trend on Monday is still more optimistic than last week. The selling pressure in the Asian session did not appear, and there was a significant rebound in the afternoon. I hope that the bullish sentiment will continue. Finally, it is emphasized that if the price cannot break through and stand above the daily resistance, there is still a high possibility of another shock decline.
Since June 19, the German government, the U.S. government, and Mt. Gox have moved more than 17,788 BTC (over $1 billion).
Especially in Germany, Bitcoin has been transferred every day since July 1st.
These three big holders currently hold 396,210 BTC ($22.78 billion):
Germany: 41,226 BTC ($2.28 billion)
United States: 213,297 BTC ($11.72 billion)
Mt. Gox: 141,687 BTC ($7.78 billion)
These coins cannot be processed in the short term, so the overall market will still fluctuate and fall. After the oversold rebound ends, it will continue to test the support, so don’t be biased, just run when you make money~
