The future market trend may be quietly brewing in two core benefits - the launch of ETH ETF and the reduction of interest rates. According to reliable sources, Bitwise has actively revised and submitted the S-1 document for the spot ETH ETF, indicating that the ETF is expected to be launched this month, although the exact time is still subject to further confirmation at the US summer hearing.
In terms of interest rate cuts, the market generally expects a key node in September or November. Based on these expectations, we can imagine several possible paths for market development:
Path 1: If the ETF is approved in July or August, accompanied by a rate cut policy in September, then the market may experience a period of shock bottoming in the following July to August, and there may be a slight rise before the ETF is approved. After the news of the rate cut lands, the market may experience a short correction, followed by a new round of strong rises in October.
Path 2: If the ETF is approved in any month from July to September, and the interest rate cut is scheduled for November, the market may first usher in a small rise before the ETF is approved, followed by a short correction and shock. Entering September and October, with the increase in expectations of interest rate cuts and the injection of ETF funds, the market will show a phased small market. After the interest rate cut is officially implemented in November, the market may experience another 1-2 month correction, accumulating momentum for a full bull market in the first quarter of 2025.
In summary, it is not a wise move to sell chips at present, because the bull market climax in the second half of the year has not really kicked off. Faced with many uncertainties in the market, we should remain patient and be prepared for a long-term battle to ensure steady progress in the market fluctuations in the second half of the year. Avoid using contracts and leverage, plan OTC funds reasonably, hold ETH as the main position, and select altcoins to diversify risks and better adapt to market changes.
Remember, the second half of the bull market we expect is not far away. Just wait patiently for a few months to witness the brilliant bloom of the market. Let us work together to fully prepare for the upcoming feast.
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