Since 2018, Bitcoin has risen within three months after a sharp drop. For example, the bear market in 2018 took 105 days to fall and the price rose from $3,000 to $14,000. The 312 shock lasted 77 days and the price rose from $7,000 to $64,000. The FTX explosion lasted one and a half months and the price rose from $15,000 to $30,000. In August and September 2023, the price rose from $25,000 to $70,000 after two months of shock.
Now BTC has risen from 72,000 points to 54,000 points, which took more than three months to fall and the callback exceeded 25%. In history, the deep wash-out retracement was 30%-40%. Looking at the delivery of on-exchange options, the delivery amounts on July 26 and September 27 were large, about 2.6 billion US dollars respectively. The biggest pain point on July 26 was 65,000 US dollars, and on September 27 it was 55,000 US dollars. If the leveraged contracts are cleaned up like before the explosion last year, 50,000-52,000 US dollars may be the bottom.
So judging from the data, there is less room to explore the bottom. Several factors in the United States, such as the launch of ETFs, monetary policy, and the presidential election, Bitcoin is likely to have a new bull market in the second half of 2024-2025. Don't be impulsive, pay attention to me first, and learn the knowledge of the currency circle to lay a foundation!
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