Author: cyclop, Crypto KOL
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
As the crypto market plummets, the Fear and Greed Index is currently at 26, almost a year low. The last time it was at this level, SOL was at $11. In the past, the index was this low in January 2023, September 2023, and July 2022, and then the market started to rise. Everyone says to "sell when greedy, buy when fearful", but only 1% of people actually do it.
Many people think that the bull market has ended, but crypto KOL cyclop believes that the bull market has not even started yet. Why is cyclop so confident? Here are 10 reference indicators he listed.
Stablecoin Index
The index tracks new capital entering the crypto market. It is currently far from the levels of previous cycles. Once liquidity increases, the market will grow accordingly.
Trading volume
Despite the higher price of Bitcoin, the volume is much lower now compared to 2021. Retail participation is extremely low, so once retail participation increases, the market will rise.
YT Metrics (YouTube Views)
Compared with the previous cycle, the YT indicator is about 5 times lower. In 2021, when Bitcoin was worth $70,000, the number of views per day was 4 million. Now, when Bitcoin is worth $70,000, the number of views per day is about 800,000. This shows that the interest of retail investors is still low and there is room for growth.
BTC.D (Bitcoin market capitalization share)
The chart below shows the percentage of BTC market cap to the total cryptocurrency market cap. Since April, BTC.D has been consolidating in the 54% to 57% range. Once BTC.D falls below this range, it will mark the beginning of the altcoin season.
Coinbase Download Ranking
When Coinbase becomes the most downloaded app, historically, it’s a sign that it’s time to exit the market. This trend may repeat, but it’s far from happening at the moment. (As shown in the chart below, it’s currently ranked 13th)
Google Trends
Google Trends searches for Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or altcoins are still well below 2021 levels. Looking at global trends over the past five years, current search interest is 2.5 times lower than in 2021.
Fed Trends
The chart below shows that when the Fed injects liquidity: buys assets, the balance sheet trends upward, and vice versa. It is critical to follow this trend because this reversal will increase liquidity in traditional financial markets and then crypto markets.
Global Net Liquidity Index
The indicator monitors the assets held by central banks and the Federal Reserve. Global liquidity is currently in a consolidation phase. However, the charts suggest that change is coming.
VC Investment
Venture capital in projects reflects market interest. The peak of financing occurred in 2021, coinciding with the peak of the cycle. Today, it is four times lower.
Total Crypto Market Cap (Excluding Top 10)
OTHERS/BTC (excluding the total market capitalization of the top 10 cryptocurrencies) is a true reflection of the altcoin market. Currently, this level is even lower than in December 2023, indicating that the main growth is still to come.
If you think you are crazy to believe this, then understand that even GCR is bullish.
Related reading: In the “diving” market, should we “dive” or go ashore first?
