It is said that BTC is gold, but the mining dynamics of BTC are completely different from those of gold. Gold mining has great elasticity, and the mining volume changes very smoothly as the stock decreases and the mining technology improves. However, BTC is forced to halve the mining speed every 4 years, which means that BTC will face the risk of returning to zero every four years. If the funds attracted cannot cover the doubling of mining costs, the Ponzi scheme will collapse.
BTC cannot go up indefinitely. The cost is halved every four years and raised every four years. In 20 years, it is 32 times, and in 40 years, it is 1,000 times. Now the market value of BTC is 1/300 of the total global wealth. According to the normal inflation rate, the market value of BTC will be more than the total global wealth. This is impossible. Therefore, the most conservative estimate is that it will return to zero within 40 years. However, considering various geopolitical factors, the market value of BTC is unlikely to account for more than 2% of the total global wealth. In this way, it is highly likely to return to zero within 10-20 years. When the computing power of the BTC network decreases, it will return to zero. At this time, the hype premium can no longer cover the mining cost, thus triggering an avalanche.
