🔥 Found an interesting statistic - a 12-month moving average (annual average) is superimposed on the unemployment graph. When the unemployment rate becomes higher than the average value for the previous year (crossing the sliding line) - this is a sign of an approaching recession.
💡 On average, the advance is two months. Now the delay is much longer, however, it must be understood that the official recognition of the recession comes with a long delay - it takes months (it took 16 months during the 2008 recession🔄), so it cannot be ruled out that in the future our present will belong to the period recession
❗️There is a certain optimization, and also, historical events do not guarantee repetition in the future. But in any case, this graph carries direct logic.
