Joe Biden's election probability is decreasing: Important signal for cryptocurrencies!

On the decentralized cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of re-election of US President Joe Biden has dropped to 9%. Bettors are speculating whether Vice President Kamala Harris will replace Biden as the Democratic nominee.

Biden's odds have rebounded briefly since then and are now at 10% in Polymarket's $226 million "2024 Presidential Election Winner" market. While former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump is considered the favorite with 61%, Harris is second with 19%.

The stock price, which reflects Biden's odds on prediction platform PredictIt, similarly fell from $0.25 to $0.20. Harris is now the Democratic frontrunner — but Trump still holds the most valuable “Yes” shares at $0.58.

According to CNN, the President is said to have warned several US governors during a meeting at the White House on July 3, joking: "I'm fine, but I don't know anything about my brain."

Polymarket shows that there is a 66% chance that Biden will withdraw before the US election on November 4, and Harris is the Democratic candidate most likely to compete with Trump. However, Biden emphasized that he has no intention of resigning despite increasing pressure.

During his Independence Day speech at the White House on July 4, Biden reportedly said, "I'm not going anywhere."