📌 Nick Timiraos ( #FED insider ):

- The June Nonfarm will make the Fed meeting in July more interesting.

- At the next meeting (in September) there may be a real debate about the need to reduce the interest rate.

▪️ Minutes from the last Fed meeting:

- The Fed is not ready to cut the rate until it gains confidence in the trajectory of inflation towards the target 2%.

- Most Fed chairmen consider the current monetary policy to be restrictive.

- Economic growth is slowing down.

- The Fed rate may be reduced by the end of the year.

▪️ Williams, Fed Chairman:

- We still have a long way to go to achieve inflation = 2.0% on a sustainable basis.

- Monetary policy uncertainty remains the main factor in the near future.

📍Market expectations (Fed rate):

- July 31: Pause.

- September 18: decrease by 25 bp. up to 5.00-5.25%.

- November 7: Pause.

- December 18: decrease by 25 bp. up to 4.75-5.00%.

- January 29, 2025: decrease by 25 bps. up to 4.50-4.75%.