There may be a black swan near the end of the second half of the year. The Fed's interest rate cut in 2025 cannot stop the downward trend. In the second half of 2025 (near the end of the year), the Fed will expand its balance sheet and release water, and then the big market will come.

Why do you think so? Because the US election at the end of the year, the Fed's monetary policy is clear, and the performance of US stocks are intertwined, each of which will have a huge impact on the global financial market. The Fed has been raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet for two years, but liquidity is still abundant. The essence is to subsidize the interest from global funds through fiscal subsidies. The bottom layer is leveraged, and the structure of the financial market with leverage, liquidation is a matter of sooner or later, and it will be cruel. When the time is right, the "sudden" economic recession in the United States leads to a financial crisis, and the US stock market will have a "you for my interest, I for your principal" plunge, completing the harvest.

At the end of 2007, the US stock market experienced a wave of rises and began to peak. In 2008, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates for a whole year, but it still failed to prevent the US stock market from falling by more than 50%, nor could it prevent the financial tsunami. In early 2009, when the Federal Reserve started printing money and implementing unlimited quantitative easing, the capital market started a new round of rise.