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Market reversals may be affected by these factors:
1. The shadow of huge compensation from Mt. Gox: The bankruptcy of the former Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox has once again enveloped the market, and a Bitcoin compensation plan worth up to US$9 billion is pending. Once these funds begin to flow to users, the market may experience violent fluctuations, and investors need to be wary of its potential impact.
2. Selling pressure at the government level: Recently, the German government has taken action to transfer approximately US$195 million worth of Bitcoin to centralized exchanges, indicating a possible selling wave. At the same time, the U.S. government’s Bitcoin wallet has also seen changes, and it is suspected that funds are being transferred to exchanges. The movements of these currency sources, which are obtained at almost no cost, have a significant impact on market sentiment and require close attention.
3. Withdrawal of Bitcoin ETF funds: What is even more worrying is that there is a net outflow of funds in the field of Bitcoin spot ETFs. 9 ETFs have reduced their holdings of 609 Bitcoins in total, worth more than 30 million US dollars. This phenomenon reflects the cautious attitude of institutional investors towards the short-term market and also adds uncertainty to market trends.
4. The Trump factor may become a turning point: However, among many unfavorable factors, Trump’s potential coming to power may become a key variable for market reversal. If he is successfully elected, it may not only ease the Russia-Ukraine conflict and alleviate inflationary pressure, but may also start the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle. What is particularly important is that Trump is open to cryptocurrency and has even personally been involved in the NFT field. This background may bring positive effects to the cryptocurrency market. Currently, Trump’s probability of winning seems to be gradually increasing, adding positive signals to the market.
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