Non-farm payrolls data is one of the important indicators to measure the health of the U.S. economy. It includes unemployment rate, new non-farm payrolls and hourly wage growth rate. Here is an analysis of the points you mentioned:
1. Unemployment rate: A slight increase in the unemployment rate may indicate that the job market is beginning to slow down, which may be an early signal of an economic slowdown. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, this may provide the Federal Reserve with a reason to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth.
2. New non-farm payrolls: Although the number of new jobs was higher than expected, overall job growth was not that strong considering the downward revision of May data. This may affect the market's view on the economic outlook.
3. Hourly wage growth rate: The decline in hourly wage growth rate may help ease inflationary pressures, as wage growth is one of the key factors driving up consumer prices.
4. ISM non-manufacturing PMI: Falling below the boom-bust line of 50 indicates that non-manufacturing activity is contracting, which may increase market concerns about a recession.
5. Interbank liquidity: Tightening of interbank liquidity may affect the availability and cost of credit markets, and thus affect economic activity.
6. Market expectations: Expectations of rate cuts and recessions may create a tug-of-war in the market, leading to increased market volatility.
7. Currency market: The cryptocurrency market is generally very sensitive to macroeconomic data and market sentiment. A sharp drop may take time to recover, especially if the market is cautious about the future economic outlook.
For next week's CPI data, it will provide more information about inflationary pressures, which is crucial to understanding the Fed's policy direction. If the CPI data shows that inflation is slowing, this may strengthen expectations for rate cuts; conversely, if inflation continues to rise, it may suppress the possibility of rate cuts.
Finally, market analysis is a complex process involving the interaction of multiple factors. Investors should consider all available information when making decisions and formulate strategies based on their risk tolerance and investment goals.
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