In addition, we still have a headache: exchange rate.

Our government has sold USD to stabilize but the exchange rate is still increasing.

Financial expert Can Van Luc and many banks predict that the exchange rate is forecast to only increase by 1.5 - 2.5% in 2024, around:

Quarter 1 = 24k

Quarter 2  = 23k

Quarter 3 = 23.8k

Quarter 4 = 23.5k

As the current reality, the exchange rate is up to 25,455, this proves what experts and the media say, if you think the opposite is correct.

I will explain why for you to understand.

If we want the exchange rate to decrease, the State Bank needs to sell and push USD into the market, but we have cut down on foreign exchange reserves, sold it but still can't sell it.

So we have to raise interest rates higher than the FED so that the USD can be retained and not attracted to the US.

In general, there must be USD in one way or another in the market for the exchange rate to not increase.
But we see that the State Bank of Vietnam did not choose to increase interest rates, right?

That means they have a way to get USD in the market, without having to pump it out, and without needing to limit withdrawals.

That is rare earth development and highway public investment, real estate law allowing foreigners to pour money into Vietnam to own.

That is the main issue that macro experts must look out for in the future.

Not only that, but the bookies are rushing to release the land law 5 months in advance, which is August 1, 2025, instead of the new 1/12025 date.

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Talking about CPI inflation, we have the following CPI proportion

Food accounts for 33.56%

Housing accounts for 18.82%

Traffic is 9.67%

Looking at that, you will see that if you want to control inflation, you only need to control food prices, that is, food prices, mainly pork, and our country does not lack meat sources.

Next is housing, the price increase is mainly due to the price of TG Steel, and the rental price of premises

Therefore, we can control inflation quite well. When we see the price of pork and food increasing, we will worry about rising inflation.