After experiencing the continuous market crash in the past few days, I gradually realized that I had underestimated the Mentougou compensation incident before. Now I think it is like a brain teaser I played when I was a child. The question is: There are ten birds on a tree. If you shoot one, how many are left on the tree? Simple arithmetic means there are 9 left, but logically speaking, there are 0.

The same is true for the compensation of Mentougou. The 140,000 bitcoins itself is not enough to cause the market to fall so badly, but other whales holding coins, such as the US government, the German government, and even the Chinese government that is rumored today, as well as other institutions that hold a large number of bitcoins, will have the idea of ​​escaping first. You can recall whether the frequent sales of coins by various governments were after the announcement of the compensation in July by Mentougou. This explains it, because the market will face 140,000 bitcoins from Mentougou, 213,000 bitcoins from the US government, 40,000 bitcoins from the German government (10,000 bitcoins have been sold in the past few days), and various countries and institutions that do not believe in Bitcoin. For example, it is said that the Chinese government currently holds more than 200,000 bitcoins, of which 194,000 bitcoins have been seized from the capital disk plustoken. Given the current domestic economic collapse, local governments are extremely short of money, so there is a good reason to ship this part of bitcoins.

Of course, the market fell so badly because the U.S. stock market was closed and the ETF's funding gap led to a decline in the market's ability to take over. My analysis yesterday was to look at the support near 56,500. Today the price directly fell below 54,000. There is definitely a lack of liquidity and liquidation behavior. I won’t talk about the retail investors who played contracts in CEX. In fact, a large part of the main ETF transactions are for hedging and arbitrage, which also means that they will also do futures trading on CME, including this afternoon's option delivery. There are liquidation points at different prices. These jumping points are bound to cause the currency price to oversell, so I think the reason why the market is so unclear now is because the ETF trading, as the main force in the market, has stopped. The trading situation of the U.S. ETF tonight is very important. It can determine whether the market has bottomed out or continues to fall to find the next support platform to rebuild the bottom.